Clay Day for Coach B

Getting ready to head up north for the basketball game today, but I saw that the JS is reporting that Racine Park RB, and one of the top 10 Running Backs in the nation, John Clay is going to announce his intention to attend UW next year. Clay had a rough senior season, but rushed for over 2000 yards as a junior, might be the best high school back out of the state since Park alumnun Brent Moss, and was highly recruited by teams like Iowa, Michigan, ND, Tennessee and others. I've heard he's the closest thing to Adrian Peterson that the state of Wisconsin could ever produce, so that's a good sign.

Read more here

Congrats to Coach B on a solid recruiting class so far (oh yeah, and for that 12-1 season as well)

Picking a fight with the Irish

Watching LSU attempt to run up the score here after another crappy Brady Quinn pass. Notre Dame is 13 minutes away from losing their 9th straight bowl game (they havent won one since January 1994). For the second straight year the Irish are going to get flogged in a BCS game they have no business being a part of.

I know this is a Big 10 blog, but I have to ask the question to Irish nation: how soon until you guys start calling for Charlie Weiss' head??? After 2 seasons, Weiss' record is a solid 19-6 until you realize that 8 of those wins came against Army, Navy, Air Force, Stanford, Syracuse and North Carolina. In addition, as I mentioned before Weiss' teams have now been hammered in two straight big bowl games. This year they also got drilled by the only really good teams they played in the regular season as well. Oh sure, you can tell me that Georgia Tech is a top 25 team, but they did that in the inflated or deflated ACC where everybody gets ranked for a week or two before losing 3 in a rown (Clemson I'm looking in your direction).

Indeed, over Weiss' 2 years in South Bend he has won exactly 0 "big games" They beat Michigan last year, only to watch Lloyd Carr's squad go 7-5. They beat Michigan State this year, but the Spartans didnt make a bowl game. They beat Purdue twice, but neither of those Boiler teams played on New Years Day.

In fact, the Charlie Weiss aura seems to stem from and be attached to the almost win over USC last season. Do you know how many coaches would love to base their whole coaching legacy on almost beating a team that should have kicked their ass? The coaching graveyards are filled with coaches who "almost" beat Miami, FSU, Mich, OSU, USC, Duke, UNC, UConn, and even Notre Dame teams of years gone by.

Ok, sure, so Weiss has gotten the Irish to 2 BCS games and that is not a small accomplishment. And two years is not enough to evaluate a coaches tenure, But is that really worth the idolatry that has been bestowed upon him by Irish nation and AD Kevin White? Hardly. Weiss has 8 years remaining on his contract and fans are begging and praying that he doesnt flee to the NFL this year.

And if two years isnt enough time to properly judge Weiss, than 3 years is not enough time to judge his predecessor Ty Willingham:

In his first season Ty Willingham also beat Michigan, the Irish also beat #11 Florida State en route to a 9-0 start to the season. Willingham's team faultered down the stretch and lost in the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day. However, while that team failed to merit a BCS invite, had there been 5 BCS games like this year, they would have (and had there been only 4 BCS games like in 2003, this Irish team would have maybe received an invite to the Gator Bowl- if not worse).

The next two years Ty's teams struggled to a combined 11-11 record, missing out on a bowl game one year, and getting an invite to the Insight.com Bowl before Willingham was dismissed before the game.

Back in the fall of 2004 ND fans could not wait to get rid of Ty, even after his team went on the road and beat a top 10 ranked Tennsessee team in Knoxville. In fact, while Charlie's teams have fattened up on cupcakes, Willingham's Irish teams played a schedule filled with top programs, including FSU twice, Maryland, Bost College every year, Pitt every year, and the aforementioned game in Knoxville. Once Weiss arrived ND dropped BC and Pitt this year for UNC or Army or Air Force, or another crappy team.

So why is it that Ty was run out of town and Weiss is revered. I don't want to play the race card, but I am going to go all in and place it on the table. Weiss is an ND grad who worked with Bill Billichick, Bill Parcells and Tom Brady. He's also really fat and not so jolly. Willingham came from California, and worked with Dennis Green. Ty was the second choice after the white skinned red faced Irishman George O'Leary lied on his resume. ND did not want to hire Willingham, and were almost forced to after the O'Leary mess. Kevin White did not want Willingham around and set him up to fail from the moment he started. When he recruited all of the players Charlie Weiss is winning with (including Quinn) and could only muster a 20-14 record against a tough schedule, he was deemed expendible. Meanwhile the Great Big Fat White Hope is being pused for sainthood with only a slightly more respectable resume.

With the Irish losing most of their big time players this year, and with a game at top 5 Michigan and a home game against top 5 USC coming up there is a good chance that next year's Irish team might be looking at a 7-5 season. Don't worry, though. Charlie will be just fine, he has the right background for the job.

A Rosey Outlook for 2007

The JS sizes up the prospects of the UW football team for 2007. It appears as if five of the six open starting positions have likely replacements, with the OL the only question with the exception of a likely QB controversy.

Crystal (Basket)Ball

Building off of Tim's blog, here is my predicted order of finish for the Big Ten Men's Regular Season. Let's count it down from ten... oops I mean eleven, to one. You will note the many references to offensive and defensive efficiency, as I have become a disciple of the Ken Pomroy school of basketball ratings.

11. Minnesota. The Gophers are terrible offensively, averaging only 97 points per 100 possessions and mediocre defensively. Do you think Gopher fans wished they had Clem Haskins and his academic "assistants" back? At least they were winning then.

10. Iowa. They are the third best team in the state of Iowa behind Northern Iowa and Drake and ahead of Iowa State. Tom Davis must have had a good laugh after his Bulldogs beat Iowa. The Hawkeyes could pull a couple of upsets at Carver-Hawkeye, but I expect them to put up little resistance on the road.

9. Northwestern. The Princeton offense will give less disciplined defensive teams trouble, especially at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The Wildcats most impressive win so far has to be against DePaul, who knocked off Kansas later in the non-conference season. The Wildcats take care of the ball, lead the nation in assist to field goal percentage and like to work the shot clock, so they can often hang around with teams that are more athletically gifted.

8. Penn State. The Nittany Lions haven't played anybody, so it is hard to make an informed prediction. However, they did put up 129 against VMI, so they must have some offensive weapons. Geary Claxton is probably the best unknown good player in the Big Ten and can keep his team in games like he did against OSU in the Big Ten Tourney. PSU is another mediocre offensive team and like Michigan, it is because of TOs and bad 3 point shooting.

7. Michigan. If the Wolverines don't make the NCAA tournament, which I am predicting they won't, is Amaker as good as gone? Michigan's offensive woes can be directly linked to their turnover percentage, which is 254th in the nation, and their poor 3 point shooting. Michigan certainly has athletes like Sims, Petway, Harris and Abram, but just can't seem to put it together on the offensive end. Giving up 92 points and losing by 37 at UCLA sums up their season.

6. Indiana. As I am watching the OSU-IU game while writing this blog, I have to give credit to the Hoosiers for hanging with the Buckeyes. I still have questions about who is going to score baskets for IU outside of DJ White. Tonight it is some guy named Joey Shaw. The Hoosiers excel defensively, ranking 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency. One reason is that the Hoosiers are one of the nation's best in preventing assists. However, IU is one of the worst teams offensively in assists to field goals made. I think Kelvin Sampson, once he gets some better recruits in (insert phone call joke here), will keep IU in the top 4 consistently.

5. Purdue. While the Boilers have been beaten by ISU and Butler, they have put together some good wins against Missouri and DePaul. Purdue has a good mix of older veterans and young rookies and the veterans have been through the Big Ten grind before so they should be competitive on the road and tough to beat at home. The Boilers are another good defensive team and the times when they struggle offensively can be directly linked to their poor free throw shooting and their streaky three point shooting.

4. Illinois. Now we will see what Bruce Weber can do with his own recruits, and my prediction is that he will continue to lose in-state talent to other schools and better recruiters. At times the Illini can be too dependent on three point shooting, as witnessed by their astonishing 34 attempts from behind the arc against Idaho State. The good news is that the Illini rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but the bad news is that they have lost every game they have played against a good team (Maryland, Arizona, Xavier). I can't wait until January 23rd, when the Hoosier travel to Assembly Hall (the one that looks like a UFO).

3. Michigan State. Drew Neitzel has stepped up his game this year and gets my vote for most improved in the Big Ten. The Spartans have been hit with the injury bug recently, but once they get healthy, you know a Tom Izzo team will be a tough out. Watch out for Raymar Morgan, as he will be a household name in a couple of years. Though it may sound like a broken record, the Spartans' dry spells on offense can be linked to turnovers and bad three point shooting.

2. Ohio State. Greg Oden is the real deal and his presence in the lane means his teammates can take more chances because Oden is there to erase shots. The Buckeyes rely too much on three point shots and it is reflected in their inability to get points from the free throw line, which is one of Wisconsin's greatest strengths. However, OSU does rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and this has to be due in part on their high effective field goal percentage ((.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA). I fully admit that OSU probably has better overall talent, but I'll take experience and coaching to prevail when it comes down to it.

1. Wisconsin. 12 wins will be enough to take the regular season title and I see the Badgers stumbling at OSU, at MSU, at Illinois and at Indiana. If Alando Tucker keeps up his current form, it would be a larceny if he didn't take home national player of the year honors. I would like to see the Badgers improve on the free throw percentage and increase the number of three pointers taken.

Sweet Georgia Brown, the Big 10 is top heavy in hoops as well

So just like in football the Big 10 appears to be the Big 2 and the little 9. Although, that is not a slight at Wisconsin football, but since no one else gave them any respect, I'm just toting the party line, ok?

Anyways, a month ago I did my basketball power rankings and now that we are on the eve of the regular season, it's time to go again. As always, please feel free to give us your own rankings.


THE BIG 2

1. Wisconsin: Sherby was right a month ago when he called me out for having the Badgers above the Bucks, but since then Greg Oden has arrived and Wisconsin has gotten a lot better. Sure they were sloppy against Georgia. But that was a tough trap game on the road. Barring injuries or suspensions Wisconsin is on the same level as the Buckeyes, even after Oden gets the full use of his right hand.

2. Ohio State: Right now I downgrade the Buckeyes because from the limited action I have seen of them they appear to be developing a poor habit of playing the "stand around the arc and not move and jack up 3's if our big guy cannot score" You might remember this offense from last year's Badger squad. And where did it get that team: a loss to ND State and getting dispatched by Arizona in the first round of the tourney. Ohio State has enough talent not to let that happen, but they don't have enough to win road games in this conference if they are just going to jack up shots all night long


THE NCAA TEAMS

3. Mich State: A very good start to the year for Izzo's team. Tom will keep them competitive. This team might even be within a game of the top with 3 weeks left. I don't think they are deep enough to win on the road or sustain their early successes through Chicago.

4. Indiana: I still don't like the Hoosiers, they really don't have a good win, but I think they have more money guys than the Illini

5. Illinois: 5th by default. They are a typical 9-7 Big 10 team. They'll beat a team like OSU or Wisconsin, and then get torched by 20 at Iowa. They were awful in the second half against Xavier, should have lost to Mizzou and Bradley and yet almost beat Arizona in Phoenix.

6. Purdue: The Boilers and the Illini will be on the bubble come March. With Wisconsin and Ohio State threatening to be top 5 teams all season the Boilers might get the benefit of being the 6th team in. They'll need a couple of quality wins, however to get such consideration


NIT BOUND

7. Michigan: Too many seniors and too much talent to be this bad, right? I can't see them winning a big game away from Crisler.

8. Penn State: Probably a 7-9 team in conference. They could be a tough out in Chicago, however if they can get hot.


WAIT TIL NEXT COACHING CHANGE

9. Iowa: Steve Alford had last season to make something happened and they lost in the first round. Nice. Now the cupboard is bare and it shows. 5-11 sounds about right for Iowa.

10. Northwestern: The Chicago media will tell you they have won a bunch of games and beat Utah, the Cats will tell you that they have set a school record for wins before Jan 1. I'll tell you that Utah sucks, they got crushed by Tennessee Tech and beat Division III Wheaton by 2.

11. Minnesota: Hey, at least Northwestern beats most of the crappy teams on their schedule. Minnesota could probably lose to 250 of the 330 teams in the nation on any given night. Could you see the Badgers losing to Ark Little Rock or Marist? Yeah, me neither. 2 coaching openings up in the Cities, way to build a program guys.

National Champs?

This Orlando columnist makes a case for Bucky should Florida upset OSU.

Congratulations Badgers!

UW Athletic Dept. tribute to the winningest team in program history. Bielema became just the third rookie coach in NCAA to win 12 games. With 9 bowl wins in 14 years, a successful transition, 16 starters returning along with both specialists, and a preseason top 10 ranking in 2007, the program has achieved perennial success.

If you're counting, UW has won 8 bowl games since Notre Dame last ended the season with a win...

What's In Your Wallet?

So New Year's Eve is finally here. Let me start by wishing everybody a healthy and prosperous 2007.

I am all about accountability (as so is the Minny AD apparently), so let's review my 2006 Bowl picks to date. My record so far is 13-7, which is not great but it will do. My picks consisted of the "good" (picking BYU to roll over the Ducks), the "bad" (picking NIU to beat TCU), and the "ugly" (picking VT to win in a low scoring Chick-Fil-a Bowl).

So now we arrive on the eve of the Capital One Bowl. Having plenty of time to think about this one, I see this as a game of two evenly matched teams (and so does Vegas). As every Badger fan knows by now, Arkansas is so scary because it has arguably the best running back tandem in the nation in McFadden and Jones. McFadden, who is still recovering from a high ankle sprain suffered in the SEC Championship game, has to be considered a favorite to win the Heisman in 2007.

However, as good as the Razorback running game has been, the Arkansas passing attack has been that bad. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's spread offense has failed to take flight, but to his credit he has adjusted to his strength by putting McFadden in the shotgun and letting him run or pass.

There is no way to completely shut down the Arkansas running attack and the Badgers should be able to come away with a victory if they hold McFadden and Jones to one long TD run (40 yards or more). The defensive front four will have to play their best game of the year, but the depth at DT and DE should allow D coordinator Hankwitz to keep fresh bodies on the field.

Offensively, the Badgers balanced attack will be tested by the speed of an SEC defense. From all accounts, Stocco is back to 100%, but I would expect him to display some rust and come out slowly. Hill will have to hit the holes quickly, because they will quickly disappear because of Arkansas' D speed.

As Heals touched on briefly, the area where Arkansas has a huge advantage is special teams. McFadden and Jones are each a threat to take a kickoff back and Bielema's insistence on sticking with Hampton means that he is a threat to put the ball on the turf during a punt return.

I predict that Arkansas will get out to a quick start, scoring on an early TD by McFadden. Wisconsin will counter with a TD late in the first quarter, and from there the teams will settle in and play to their strengths. I expect Wisconsin to win the turnover battle and our outside LBs have the speed to keep up with McFadden and Jones.

Beckum should be able to exploit the middle of the field and Hubbard will get behind the DBs to connect with Stocco for a long TD pass. The Badgers will be up by a FG at the start of the 3rd quarter. The Badger D will come up with a big 3 and out to start the 4th and from there the offense will wear down the Hogs and score on a game clinching Hill TD. McFadden will score a TD late to make the final score 24-21.

The win over Arkansas will propel the Badgers to a pre-season top 10 ranking next year and more great things to come.

#4 with a Smile

Special thanks to Sherby for going balls to the wall and predicting every bowl game (although we still need your Cap One Bowl pick, s'il vous plait) I'm not that good, but I will pick the NYD and BCS games. Enjoy:

Outback: PSU vs Tennessee:

A good matchup of the immovable object vs the unstoppable force or however the saying goes. I just don't see Penn State keeping up with UT unless the get some defensive or special teams scores. UT 27-14

Gator: West Virginia vs Georgia Tech:

To be honest, I'm not even sure if Georgia Tech is in this game or not, I just figured they were the one ACC team that I haven't accounted for yet. Anyways, in my South Carolina Fantasy Football League the guy who won was hella annoying and is a WVU grad and kept sending us annoying WVU emails all year. When Louisville beat them 9 of the other 11 of us changed our names to Louisville or "Steve Slayton sucks" references. So there is no way I am taking West Virginia

GT: 27
WVU: 23


Cotton: Nebraska vs Auburn:

I think the Huskers have been underrated all year. This will be a dangerous team next year, especially since I think Texas was overrated this year.

Nebraska 20
Auburn 12


Orange: Wake vs Louisville

Honestly, does anyone care?

Wake 21
Louisville 20


Fiesta I Oklahoma vs Boise State

The Big 12 was a heaping pile of dog stuff this year. If Iowa and Minnesota hadn't screwed up their bowl record would be a whopping 1-5 right now. I know they are getting A.D. back (For All Day) and his last game before going to the Houston Texans will be a good one. But I see Boise on top here in what might be a fun game to watch tomorrow night:

Boise: 34
OU: 31


Sugar: ND vs LSU

Notre Dame's Bowl drought continues. I give them 0 chance of winning this game. Unless they bust out the green jerseys, then I give them -10% chance of winning. Only a Brady Quinn Special (a garbage td to his female WR Jess Samardzjia) keeps this from being a total rout.

LSU 42
ND: 23



Rose: Mich vs USC

I'm really hoping Lloyd has his guys up for this one. Unfortunately, teams that usually get snubbed by the BCS end up laying a Purdue sized egg in their consolation prize game. There is no doubt in my mind Michigan is the #2 team in the country, but they lose here

USC 20
Mich 10


Fiesta II: OSU vs Florida

I've had this score in mind for 3 weeks. I love OSU in this game. I love them big. I've seen the Gators play a bunch this year, probably more times than I have seen the Bucks and the Gators are a great team. They play good d, I love Chris Leak, and Tim Tebow is freaking tough. But what this Gator team does not have that other Gator teams have had is great skill players at the WR and RB position. I don't see it here. Meanwhile, OSU has those guys, no one on Florida can keep up with Ted Ginn and Troy Smith is this year's Vince Young. They'll be better prepared, better coached, and they'll be ready to play. I also hope they carry a Big 10 chip on their shoulder.

It hurts me to do this because I picked the Gators to win it all, but OSU rolls. I'm picking OSU 41-20, but I know there will be a time with about 3 minutes left where the Buckeyes have the ball around midfield and Tressel will be faced with a decision of running the ball or sending Ted Ginn deep for a run it up, the SEC can suck it and Michigan is 100 times better than you guys score. I hope he does. I certainly would in this spot.
In addition, I really want to see that whiner Urban Meyer cry:

"Yeah, yeah.... oh let me taste your tears Urban. Mmmmm... your tears are so yummy and sweet. Oh, the tears of unfathomable sadness! Yummy, yummy guys!"

Cap One Bowl:

I like Healy's analysis. Wisconsin can keep up with the Hogs, Arkansas has been nothing short of dysfunctional since the SEC title game, the Badgers are better and they show up more prepared and ready to play. Possible Rain tomorrow means a slick ball and potential errors from non-Qbs throwing passes for the Hogs. PJ Hill needs a big game early and the O-Line needs to punish Arkansas from the get go.

Wisconsin 27
Arkansas 17

Gameday Analysis

What follows are my five keys to a UW bowl victory against Arkansas, a formidable opponent who should test Bielema's Badgers for 4 quarters.

1. As I mentioned in my earlier post on the Wildcat formation, UW must assign a LB as McFadden's stalker, particularly when he lines up at QB in a triple threat position. Casillas gets the nod here. McFadden will get his yards, but the home run is what we must prevent, and #2 and his blond mohawk are up to the task.

2. Eat clock on offense. This means methodically moving the chains with PJ Hill and the running game, with key third down completions to Luke Swann and Travis Beckum by seasoned senior John Stocco. McFadden isn't dangerous on the sideline.

3. Turnovers. Florida won this battle on 12/2 and is playing for a national championship. The margin of victory in the SEC championship is attributed to points off turnovers. Arkansas has too much firepower on offense to surrender points for charity.

4. Kicking game, particularly the kickoff squad. Jones and McFadden return kickoffs, so Melhoff needs to boot the ball deep for touchbacks, keeping it out of their hands entirely. Debauche needs to win the field position battle, making the Razorbacks work a long field. Given Arkansas' proven big play potential this provides more margin for error.

5. Pass defense. Arkansas isn't much of a threat here. (see UW of seasons past) If Ike, Langford and the safeties shut this down early, Arkansas will continue to hand the balll off to its best two players, allowing the safeties to walk up and for UW to stack the box.

Prediction: UW struggles early as McFadden and Jones bust a few long runs, but controls the time of possession, doesn't turn the ball over, and stiffens up on defense with halftime adjustments. They forge ahead late in the 3rd quarter with a Luke Swann acrobatic catch in the corner of the endzone, and close the deal with a PJ Hill dive midway through the 4th.

UW 31, Arkansas 21.

2006 in Review, 2007 Predictions/ Aspirations

The JS listed the top ten stories in Wisconsin sports in 2006. The UW hockey teams claiming national championships registered #10, and Alvarez's swan song against Auburn #8. Three state schools in the NCAA registered at #6, even though all were 1st round casualties. Bielema's Badgers ranked at #2 next to the changing of the guard in Titletown.

Let's hope a final four run for the basketball Badgers tops the list for 2007, followed by a top tier finish for the football team and a BCS bowl bid. I'm not going to predict a run at the national title given the difficulty of the schedule, but a top ten start isn't out of the question, especially if Bucky can pull off a mild upset tomorrow against Arkansas. The hockey team has played better of late, making another frozen four run a possibility, and the women have a great chance to repeat. Overall, there's a huge reason to be bearish about Bucky heading into 2007.