Battle For Top Cheese

If you hadn't heard, Marquette and Wisconsin will battle for Wisconsin hoops supremacy (sorry UW-GB and UW-M) tonight at 5pm at the Kohl Center. The Wisconsin media has played up the back court match-up comparing MU's Jerel McNeal, Dominic James and Wesley Matthews against UW's Trevon Hughes, Michael Flowers and Joe Krabbenhoff.

After reviewing each team's statistical profile on BasketballProspectus.com , it appears that the key match-up will be MU's offense vs. UW's defense inside the arc.

Marquette currently has the 19th best effective field goal percentage offense (effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers) while protecting the rock and rebounding nearly 40% of its misses. As a result, Marquette is currently has the 3rd most efficient offense in the nation.

Wisconsin currently has the 3rd best effective field goal percentage defense, as opponents are making only 40% of their shots (giving 50% more credit for made three-pointers). The Badgers also clean the defensive glass exceptionally well, with only Santa Clara (?) being better (UW opponents are rebounding a measly 22% of their missed shots). As a result, UW is currently the 2nd most efficient defense in the nation.

At the other end of the court, Wisconsin ranks 51st in offensive efficiency and UW ranks 45th in defensive efficiency.

So where does this leave us? With two teams so evenly matched, home court and the benches should play a big role. UW currently has a 28 game home court winning streak so the Kohl Center is been a virtual fortress. As far as benches, Bo Ryan brings veteran guard Michael Flowers, sharpshooter Jason Bohannon and rising freshman Jon Leuer. MU coach Tom Crean has sharpshooter David Cubillan, guard Maurice Acker and big man Ousmane Barro waiting in the wings. The bench match-up appears even so far, but the edge goes to Wisconsin because Coach Ryan can bring in reliable Kevin Gullickson to throw his body around and get some boards.

BasketballProspectus predicts a 67-62 Wisconsin win. My prediction is 59-56 Wisconsin. Go Badgers!