West Coast!

Since we are now in full swing for college basketball and since it appears our team might be playing deep into March and maybe even early April I thought it would be a good idea to break down some of the other major conferences in America. Anyone is welcome to pick a conference and run. My choices of breakdown worth conferences: ACC, Big East, SEC, Big 12, Pac 10, and the Mizzou Valley. Since I am a big time Pac 10 afficionado and since it is the best conference in America so far, I thought I'd start there.

TR's PAC 10 Breakdown:

Like the Big 10 the Pac 10 appears to have 2 teams ahead of the "pac", however, unlike the BIg 10 the Pac 10 is incredibly deep this season. Only 8 teams get invites to the Staples Center for the conference tourney, and it appears that the two teams that will not be invited to LA will be Arizona State and Oregon State. Neither team has won a conference game yet, but that will change for one lucky winner tonight in the desert.

As for the remaining 8 teams, it appears so far that only Cal will be a long shot to make the big dance in March. The remaining 7 teams will all compete for what will be 5 or 6 spots in the tourney come March.

The two top teams are clearly Arizona and UCLA. One of these teams will most likely be a #1 seed and the one that isn't will be a #3 at worst. I think Arizona has more talent and is a better team, but UCLA might be more complete, they play better defense and they certainly have the experience to go deep into March. However, where I separate the teams is at the point. Arizona runs out one of the best point guards in America in Mustafa Shakur. UCLA lost Jordan Farmar to the pros. Darren Collison has done a great job stepping in for the Bruins. He routinely scores in double digits and is averaging 6 assists per game. However, while Shakur has the experience of leading a team through the rigors of a long season I'm just not sure if Collison can do the same. Ben Howland will have his team ready to play every game, but the Bruins probably finish #2 in the conference.

The next tier consists of 3 teams: 2 surprises in a good way and one surprise in a not so good way.

Washington has started 1-4 in conference, but they'll get better. The Huskies can run and could be a dangerous 8/9 seed come March.

Oregon beat the #1 Bruins last week and had a great non-conference run, albeit against suspect competition. They are very tough to beat at home, but will probably go 5-4 at best on the road in the conference. I think the Ducks finish 3rd or 4th in conference, which is nice because their cheerleaders are smoking hot.

Washington State is by far the biggest surprise in the conference, if not America, this season. However, their non-conference SOS would make Tom Crean blush and this team has 0, I mean NO big game experience at all. Still, Pullman is a terrible place for teams to travel, Tony Bennett has this team playing great basketball, and right now they've lost one conference game- at UCLA in a game they could have won. This week they drilled Cal in Berkeley. I think they'll get the 3rd or 4th place spot that Oregon does not and they'll get their first NCAA birth in over a decade. Tony Bennett will be coach of the year in conference and will deserve some national consideration as well.

Finally we have 2 teams that will be on and off the bubble all year. Either of these teams could sneak into the top 5, especially if the Huskies continue to struggle and both will be tough outs at the Staples Center:

USC plays 40 minutes of hell, and unlike UCLA they beat the Ducks at Mac Court. Tim Floyd (remember him) has a ton of talent on his squad. They are a great upset pick to beat UCLA at home today. They'll need a few good wins and probably a win at the Staples to get NCAA consideration, especially since their best non-conf win other than Wichita was Long Beach State.

Stanford was supposed to be a top 10 team last year, but since Trent Johnson is a moron they had a terrible season. They are actually playing the Wash State role this year- scaring the hell out of Arizona in Tucson, beating the Huskies in Palo Alto and winning at Virginia, while losing to San Jose State by 21. For these reasons Stanford needs more big wins than any other team in the Pac 10. Fortunately the Cardinal have the y2k version of the Collins twins in twin big men Brook and Robin Lopez (gee, anyone else think their mother thought she was having twin girls?) Robin has been a freaking stud so far, which is nice, because everyone else on this team is completely mediocre. This team really reminds me of the 01-02 Badgers, just without Kirk Penney. If Stanford had a sharp shooter like Penney or Matt Lottich they would be scarry. Instead they have to rely on two guys who cant shoot in Lawrence Hill and Tony "not so" Goods to score for them. I think they probably get the 7 seed, but if they get hot and dont lose games they shouldn't they could compete for a tourney slot.

So, here would be my PAC 10 predictions:

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. Oregon
4. Wash St
5. USC
6. Washington
7. Stanford
8. Cal
9. Ariz State
10. Oregon State

I think both USC and Wash will get NCAA births. Arizona will go to the final 4 while UCLA will probably get bounced in the elite 8.

Wash State, USC, and Wash will all compete for a birth in the sweet 16, with Wash St and USC getting by. Meanwhile, I think Oregon pulls a 5 seed and would be a great team to bet against in the first round

Not In Our House

On Friday night the Badgers men's hockey team topped #1 ranked Minnesota 2-1 in an electric atmosphere at the Kohl Center.

The loss stopped Minnesota's 22 game overall unbeaten streak and its 21 game road unbeaten streak and was the sixth win in the last eight for Bucky. Left winger Ross Carlson scored on a pair of power-play conversions, including the winner, which knocked the water bottle off the roof of the net.

Having finally recovered from a rash of injuries earlier this year (not too mention the growing pains of a young but talented team), the Badgers are poised to make a move up the standings of the WCHA. Another win tonight would be a great start towards that goal.

House of Horrors

Mike Lucas details the Badger mens basketball team's history of bad play at the small basketball gym that sounds like a funeral home.

While the Badgers have won the last eight against the Cats in Madison, they have lost three of the last four in Evanston.

While I would love to be there today, I have witnessed those last three losses in Evanston, so hopefully my absence will lead to a Badger victory. The Badgers have received lots of love from the national media in the wake of the OSU victory, but their performance on the road against a lower tier Big Ten team may speak louder than a victory at home, where the Badgers are 40-2 under Bo Ryan against Big Ten foes.

Long Overdue Pub

Cnnsi.com's Luke Winn elevates Wisconsin to #1 in his college basketball power rankings. In choosing between UW and UNC for the top spot, Winn choose the Badgers because they have two good road wins (Marquette, Georgia) vs. UNC's one average road win (St. Louis). Wisconsin also beat OSU with Oden (who didn't play against the Tarheels), even if he still shot FTs with his off-hand.

Winn's colleague Seth Davis also checked in with his thoughts on Wisconsin and three other title contenders. Davis gave props to underappreciated "point" guard Michael Flowers and pointed out that because of frontcourt depth, the Badgers have 35 fouls to give each game.

As has been detailed here before, Davis identified Wisconsin's weaknesses as FT shooting and three point shooting. Wisconsin ranks 7th and 9th in the Big Ten in those two categories. As we witnessed in Tuesday's game, the three point shot is a great equalizer and a team that can makes threes is never out of it. Wisconsin's inability to consistently make threes also means that the Badgers cannot pull away from teams as easily as a team that shot threes better.

Cheese Combo

Props from Skip Myslenski of the Chicago Tribune for a win against OSU attributed to the entire team.

SI 2007 Top Ten

SI's January 15, 2007 issue took a shot at predicting the top ten teams at the start of the 2007 college football season (page 42). Three Big Ten teams made the cut, and UW may have the fewest question marks in this prestigious group. Needless to say, the early props were music to my ears after this week's dis by the AP.

1. USC
2. LSU
3. Florida
4. Ohio State
5. West Virginia
6. Bucky
7. Michigan
8. Louisville
9. Texas
10. Virginia Tech

Sleepers: UCLU, South Carolina, and South Florida.

2007 Football Projections

Jeff Potrykus suggests that a top-ten ranking for the UW football team is only a 50-50 proposition, but a top 15 spot a virtual lock. I tend to agree with him given the fact that the team slipped in the AP poll despite winning their bowl game and finishing 12-1. Stability is the key for Bucky, especially with other contenders forced to replace key players and coaches.

So Far, So Good

As we catch our collective breath from the barn-burner last evening and acknowledge that 14 regular season games remain, not to mention the Big Ten Tournament and a likely high seed in the Dance, Bucky is a legitimate Final Four calliber team. On an evening when Tucker's shots weren't falling and he wasn't getting to the FT line, Kammron Taylor and Michael Flowers proved that UW has the guard play to make a deep run in the tournament, and Marcus Landry made a case on both ends of the floor, triggering a decisive run that put Bucky on top for good.

A few concerns remain:
1. Failure to close out shooters in the 3-point arc.
2. Too many offensive rebounds by OSU in the 1st Half.
3. Shaky FT shooting down the stretch.

I refuse to dwell on the negatives however in this season of parity with no single title contender. Bo Ryan has lost only two conference games at the Kohl Center during his tenure as coach, and has a 13-2 home record against ranked opponents. It would be a disappointment if Bucky failed to win the remaining six games on their home floor. I still contend that it will take 12-13 wins in league play to win the conference, and I like our chances with a projected outcome of the remaining 14 games to follow.

1/13 @NW (W)
1/17 Purdue (W)
1/20 @Illinois (W)*
1/24 Michigan (W)
1/28 @Iowa (W)
1/31 @Indiana (L)
2/3 Northwestern (W)
2/7 @Penn State (W)
2/10 Iowa (W)
2/14 @Minnesota (W)
2/17 Penn State (W)
2/20 @MSU (L)
2/25 @OSU (L)
2/3 MSU (W)

* I have the most doubt in making this pick, but can't ignore OSU's demolition job at Assembly Hall last Saturday. The games at Iowa and Penn State are other potential pitfalls. We can still lose one of these three and have a great chance to at least tie for the title.

Irish Without the Fight

In continuing TR's tradition, I'll continue with the Notre Dame bashing before venting about today's release of the AP poll.

Question: What do Notre Dame and marijuana have in common?

Answer: They both get smoked in bowls.

The Half-Baked Irish came in at #17 in the final poll, a lofty spot for a team crushed by Michigan, USC, and LSU, with two decent wins against UCLA and Georgia Tech.

There is simply no justice in the world for Wisconsin. Unlike the Big Ten champs Bucky dispatched of a formidable SEC opponent. Granted, it wasn't pretty, but a #7 spot from the AP is a slap in the face. Given their 12-1 record, an EARLY loss to a top-ten opponent on their home field, and eight straight wins to end the season you figured a top-five finish was in the works. At least USA Today and the coaches saw it that way.

Wolverine fans might be miffed by falling beneath Bucky given their win in September, but with an inferior record and a 2-game losing streak it's clear that Wisconsin was a better team by season-end. One could make a legitimate argument that Bielema's Badgers were the best team in the Big Ten, but the scheduling Gods prohibited a matchup with the Bucks.

That said, a #6 finish (averaging the two polls) is a fantastic finish for a team not expected to even crack the Top 25. With 16 starters returning, two capable QB's, and a stud TB on the way the writers cannot deny Bucky a place in their pre-season top-ten. It will be the job of this team to take the pads and pens out of their hands and make a title game berth their inevitable destiny.

Give this Irishman and helmet and pads, for Bucky deserves a fighting chance to be California dreaming come December (if not playing for all the bananas).

Sizing Up the Big Ten One Week In

Regardless of the outcome of tomorrow night's clash of the titans, Wisconsin and OSU are the top dogs in the league, and the remaining nine teams will battle in out for the middle tier and the three to four remaining spots in the Big Dance. Bo Ryan is 8-2 against OSU, and UW has a knack for upsetting the Bucks over the years, even with inferior talent. This matchup represents only the third time that both teams are ranked in the top 25, but the underdog has fared well across time.

A quick look at the less than inspiring Little Nine. The third-best team in the league likely hails from Indiana. Not sure whether Purdue or the Hooisers are worthy of the title as both have one loss, but Indiana looked tough on their home floor yesterday, and the combination of Landry and Teague will make the Boilers a threat all season long. Penn State is finally healthy and will make Happy Valley a bermuda triangle of sorts for Big Ten foes. Michigan is 2-0, but I'm not a fan of Tommy Amaker who always seems to find a way to lose with superior talent. The Wolverines might grab a spot in the dance for the first time since 1998, but won't threaten the Big Two. MSU looked horrible yesterday, but Coach Izzo will remold his squad by the end of the season and take them back to the Dance. The balance of the league will fight for a ticket to the Not Invited Tournament. Illinois, fresh off an 0-2 start and their worst home loss since we had a Wolverine in the White House, must halt their losing streak quickly to save the season. Iowa's surprising win over Indiana only proves how difficult it is to win on the road in the Big Ten. Northwestern and Minnesota will both be locked out of the postseason.

In case you missed it, Alando Tucker was featured in SI with a three-page story, and tomorrow night's matchup was profiled. The program has truly risen to uncharted heights.