Crystal (Basket)Ball

Building off of Tim's blog, here is my predicted order of finish for the Big Ten Men's Regular Season. Let's count it down from ten... oops I mean eleven, to one. You will note the many references to offensive and defensive efficiency, as I have become a disciple of the Ken Pomroy school of basketball ratings.

11. Minnesota. The Gophers are terrible offensively, averaging only 97 points per 100 possessions and mediocre defensively. Do you think Gopher fans wished they had Clem Haskins and his academic "assistants" back? At least they were winning then.

10. Iowa. They are the third best team in the state of Iowa behind Northern Iowa and Drake and ahead of Iowa State. Tom Davis must have had a good laugh after his Bulldogs beat Iowa. The Hawkeyes could pull a couple of upsets at Carver-Hawkeye, but I expect them to put up little resistance on the road.

9. Northwestern. The Princeton offense will give less disciplined defensive teams trouble, especially at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The Wildcats most impressive win so far has to be against DePaul, who knocked off Kansas later in the non-conference season. The Wildcats take care of the ball, lead the nation in assist to field goal percentage and like to work the shot clock, so they can often hang around with teams that are more athletically gifted.

8. Penn State. The Nittany Lions haven't played anybody, so it is hard to make an informed prediction. However, they did put up 129 against VMI, so they must have some offensive weapons. Geary Claxton is probably the best unknown good player in the Big Ten and can keep his team in games like he did against OSU in the Big Ten Tourney. PSU is another mediocre offensive team and like Michigan, it is because of TOs and bad 3 point shooting.

7. Michigan. If the Wolverines don't make the NCAA tournament, which I am predicting they won't, is Amaker as good as gone? Michigan's offensive woes can be directly linked to their turnover percentage, which is 254th in the nation, and their poor 3 point shooting. Michigan certainly has athletes like Sims, Petway, Harris and Abram, but just can't seem to put it together on the offensive end. Giving up 92 points and losing by 37 at UCLA sums up their season.

6. Indiana. As I am watching the OSU-IU game while writing this blog, I have to give credit to the Hoosiers for hanging with the Buckeyes. I still have questions about who is going to score baskets for IU outside of DJ White. Tonight it is some guy named Joey Shaw. The Hoosiers excel defensively, ranking 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency. One reason is that the Hoosiers are one of the nation's best in preventing assists. However, IU is one of the worst teams offensively in assists to field goals made. I think Kelvin Sampson, once he gets some better recruits in (insert phone call joke here), will keep IU in the top 4 consistently.

5. Purdue. While the Boilers have been beaten by ISU and Butler, they have put together some good wins against Missouri and DePaul. Purdue has a good mix of older veterans and young rookies and the veterans have been through the Big Ten grind before so they should be competitive on the road and tough to beat at home. The Boilers are another good defensive team and the times when they struggle offensively can be directly linked to their poor free throw shooting and their streaky three point shooting.

4. Illinois. Now we will see what Bruce Weber can do with his own recruits, and my prediction is that he will continue to lose in-state talent to other schools and better recruiters. At times the Illini can be too dependent on three point shooting, as witnessed by their astonishing 34 attempts from behind the arc against Idaho State. The good news is that the Illini rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but the bad news is that they have lost every game they have played against a good team (Maryland, Arizona, Xavier). I can't wait until January 23rd, when the Hoosier travel to Assembly Hall (the one that looks like a UFO).

3. Michigan State. Drew Neitzel has stepped up his game this year and gets my vote for most improved in the Big Ten. The Spartans have been hit with the injury bug recently, but once they get healthy, you know a Tom Izzo team will be a tough out. Watch out for Raymar Morgan, as he will be a household name in a couple of years. Though it may sound like a broken record, the Spartans' dry spells on offense can be linked to turnovers and bad three point shooting.

2. Ohio State. Greg Oden is the real deal and his presence in the lane means his teammates can take more chances because Oden is there to erase shots. The Buckeyes rely too much on three point shots and it is reflected in their inability to get points from the free throw line, which is one of Wisconsin's greatest strengths. However, OSU does rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and this has to be due in part on their high effective field goal percentage ((.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA). I fully admit that OSU probably has better overall talent, but I'll take experience and coaching to prevail when it comes down to it.

1. Wisconsin. 12 wins will be enough to take the regular season title and I see the Badgers stumbling at OSU, at MSU, at Illinois and at Indiana. If Alando Tucker keeps up his current form, it would be a larceny if he didn't take home national player of the year honors. I would like to see the Badgers improve on the free throw percentage and increase the number of three pointers taken.