Big Ten Tournament Battleground

Sorry to steal your thunder Heals, but here are my quick picks for the first day of the BTT:

Northwestern (9) over Minnesota (8) 57-54
Michigan (7) over Iowa (10) 65-60
Penn St. (6) over Indiana (11) 63-62

Explanation: Northwestern is playing as well as anybody in the Big Ten right now. Minnesota's offense is not good in the half-court and Northwestern will not allow this game to be back-and-forth will a lot of transition points, as Minnesota likes. The Cats will go through and the Gophers will go home.

Michigan is coming off a huge win at Minnesota. Iowa is coming off another OT game at home. Iowa has not beaten a single Big Ten team away from home and the trend will continue today.

Penn St. is coming off a disappointing loss at Iowa that could have sealed up the #2 seed. Indiana is playing at "home" with nothing to play for except the chance to ruin Penn St.'s season. I thank goodness that Wisconsin avoiding the #6 seed because this game vs. Indiana is a no-win situation. If you win, it is because you should have beaten the team with 1 conference win. If you lose, it is an inexcusable loss that will resonate with the selection committee. I expect Indiana to play well in front of a friendly crowd and really challenge Penn St. These two teams played less than two weeks ago in State College and Indiana was in it to the end. However, as he has shown during the year, Talor Battle will find a way to get the Nittany Lions the win.

QUARTERFINALS

Michigan St. (1) over Minnesota (8) 70-55
Wisconsin (4) over Ohio St. (5) 60-58
Michigan (7) over Illinois (2) 63-60
Purdue (3) over Penn St. (6) 66-60

Explanation: Michigan St. is peaking at the end of the season and playing for a #1 seed if it can pull of the double. I expect Michigan St. to display its lock-down defense and stymie a Minnesota team that has trouble running its offense in the half-court. Minnesota will not be able to improve its bubble position and be sweating it out at 5 pm Sunday.

Wisconsin and Ohio State will be a repeat from the February 14th game in Madison -- hard fought and down to the last possession. The key match-ups will be Krabbenhoft vs. Turner, Bohannon vs. Diebler and Leuer/Landry vs. Mullins. I expect Krabbenhoft and Landry to display senior leadership and lead the Badgers over a senior-less Buckeye team.

As I blogged earlier, I'm not sold on this Illinois team. They play great defense, but the offense is hit-or-miss. I expect a lot of misses from the Illini offense and the Wolverines to win a game they need to win to make the big dance.

Finally, Purdue is coming off back-to-back losses to finish the season and faces a PSU team that waltzed past Indiana yesterday. I believe that Purdue is going to play well in the BTT, motivated by the loss in last years' quarterfinals. I don't put too much stake in PSU's win yesterday and I expect the Purdue defense to slow down Talor Battle and "cut-off the head" of PSU's offense. Purdue looks to be a good bet to make the finals in the BTT.