Lines Lines, everywhere are lines

My mind is bracket mush, but my picks are down on paper.

But before I give you my selections, some things to keep in mind over the next 3 weeks:

1. The SEC is dog crap. Take SEC teams to get past the first weekend at your own risk. Don't forget, their conference tourney was won by the 11th best team who had to win 3 games in 2 days, oh and all 3 games were against teams in the field.
Not a good sign

2. Every year there is an overrated team that everyone gives way too much credit to and they end up getting bounced in the first or second round. This year, that team is USC.

3. Every year there is one or two "upset" teams that everyone loves. Usually one of them comes through. Last year, that team was Winthrop. This year: look out for Davidson and Siena

4. When someone is discussing their bracket with you and they tell you with pride that they picked several upsets and then boast about the two 9 seeds, the 10 seed and the (oh my god!) 11 seed they picked: PUNCH THAT PERSON IN THE EAR. Nothing short of a 12 seed is an upset. The teams seeded 6-11 are practically the same. There are usually 1-2 wins that separate the teams. Want proof? Look no further than the Big 12:

6. Oklahoma
9. Tex A&M
11. Kansas St
11. Baylor

Now look at how these teams finished in the conference:

3. Kansas State
4. Oklahoma
5. Baylor
6. Texas A&M

So K State finishes ahead of Oklahoma and are 5 seeds lower? Really? So no, 11 seeds winning are not that much of an upset

5. Speaking of the Sooners, I don't think there is another team in the field that is more overseeded than the Sooners. Oh, and there is no team more underseeded than Butler. Oklahoma is the 6 in the East and Butler is the 7. What, the committee could not have switched these two? When they put the bracket together no one stood up and yelled "Bullshit!" Well I yell it now. It's absolute crap. Maybe they did it for the pod system, right? WRONG, they are both playing in Birmingham. There is no excuse for this. Plus, by downgrading Butler they take away a great darkhorse special in South Alabama, but on the other hand, if I was a betting man it would be a great time to load up on St. Joes.

Ok, so here are my picks, starting with 2nd round matchups:

EAST:

UNC over Indiana
Wash St over ND
Lville over St. Joes
Butler over Tenn

Tennessee needs to spend less time bitching about their seed and more time worrying about whichever team comes out of that 7-10 split. Both can keep up with the Vols and Tennessee will have a tough time on Sunday


MIDWEST:

Kansas over UNLV
Clemson over Siena
Wisconsin over KSU
Georgetown over Davidson

A couple of dangerous teams...dangerous to pick. USC is good, but KSU is underrated here and I'll go with Beasley knocking off a USC team that might not be as good as everyone thinks. Vandy is too inconsistent to win 2 games in 3 days. Oh, and Siena completely dominated a solid Rider squad last week. I really like Siena here


SOUTH:

Memphis over MSu#1
MSU#2 over Pitt
Stanford over Marq
Texas over Miami

Miami is a hunch to win and Miss State is an actual SEC team I respect. Oh, and it pains me to pick the Gold

WEST:

UCLA over Tex A&M
UConn over Drake
Purdue over Xavier
Duke over Arizona

Here is the bracket where PPP and tempo free statistics finally got to me. I was going to pick BYU, but A&M is the better pick, so is UConn as Drake can't do much other than shoot 3s- although Drake was awesome against ISU last week. Also Purdue is strong as well. Arizona could beat Duke, but they could lose by 20 to WVU too. In those situations, I take the highly seeded team.


FINAL 8

Louisville over UNC
Kansas over Wisc
Stanford over Memphis
UCLA over Duke

I've said all year that UNC is losing in the second round. They probably won't but I cannot see them playing Indiana/Ark, WSU/ND, Tenn/Lville without a massive defensive disaster. I bet it happens agains Pitino who will outcoach Roy and get to the Final 4

The Badgers are going to kick Georgetown's ass, but damn is Kansas great. Clemson could give Kansas a tough game, but I am picking the talented squad here who plays defense and scores at will.

Texas' home court in Houston gets thrown out the window the moment you realize 1. It did no good for Tex A&M in San Antonio next year and 2. Whatever sound they can create goes right into the rafters the moment the ball goes into the air. Plus, playing on the 50 yard line means a tough shooting backdrop, but not if your name is Lopez and you are shooting from 2 feet away.

UCLA is miles ahead of UConn and Duke and they move on


FINAL 4:

Kansas over Louisville: Too much firepower, the ability to stay physical with Carracter and Padgett and they'll be able to knock down enough 3s of their own should the Cards get hot. A lot of offense in this one, 75-67

UCLA over Stanford: Will the 4th time be a charm for the Cardinal? Probably not, Stanford got screwed 2 weeks ago in LA, but UCLA puts the clamps on the Cards early and win a 60-51 snoozer.

FINAL:
UCLA over Kansas: I said I was picking a Pac 10 team, so for the 3rd year in a row I take the Bruins. This game might not be a classic, but it will be a balanced matchup. UCLA and Kansas are both great at the same things, but UCLA just does them better. 74-69.

Let's See How Far We've come

My official bracket projections will be up as soon as Ken Pom (Wisconsin with an 8% chance to win it all!!!!!!) gives me his odds for the other half of the bracket.

But on the eve of that happening we need to talk about something, the TR Kiss of Death, or as we lovingly refer to it the TRKOD. This term was coined on the eve of the 1995 tournament when I mentioned to a friend that the last 3 years I picked tournament winners, my champion lost in the second round each of those years.
Incidentally, those three years were the first three years I started picking teams. Unfortunately, the TRKOD did not die in March of 1995, and it has appeared several times since. It is a bad record, one that needs to be reviewed:

1992 Pick: Kansas. Lost in 2nd round to UTEP
1993: Seton Hall: lost in 2nd round to Memphis State
1994: Umass: Lost in 2nd round to Maryland
1995: Arkansas

Arkansas in 1995 was lucky to actually get out of the first round. In the second round they found themselves matched up against Syracuse in Austin, Texas. The game went into OT and was close with the Hogs enjoying a one point lead, but the cuse had the ball (O my God, O my God) and took a last second shot that was online, but bounced off the rim. I was lying on the ground in agony at the time, but the wings of angels picked me up and led me around the house screaming "THE CURSE IS DEAD"

Unfortunately, the curse was not dead, just suspended. The Hogs ended up losing in the title game to UCLA

1996: Kentucky: Won it all
1997: Kentucky: Lost in title game

Wow, so Kentucky was treating me well. Usually when you find a horse that is a winner you ride that horse until she bucks you, right? RIGHT???
So while Kentucky avenged its 1997 loss by winning it all in 1998, I decided to pick...

1998: Kansas: Lost in 2nd round to URI (AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH)
1999: Stanford: Lost in 2nd round to "I effing hate them" Gonzaga
2000: Stanford: LOST IN 2nd ROUND

Yeah, I was not doing well here. The curse was back. Remember the above comment about riding the winning horse? Yeah, apparently I misunderstood the word "winning" because I found a horse, but she really sucked at the end of March

2001: Stanford: Lost in Elite 8 (hey hey!)
2002: Maryland: Won it all!!!!!!!
2003: Arizona: Lost in Elite 8

Right, so now I just decided to take Pac 10 teams. And on the eve of the 04 tourney I was feeling confident that a one loss Stanford team could not screw this up, right? RIGHT????

2004: Stanford: Lost in 2nd round
2005: Wake Forest: Pittsnoggled in 2nd round.

I hate this world

Ok, for 2006, we got back to basics, meaning taking a Pac 10 team, jut not one named Stanford. And it worked out pretty well:

2006: UCLA: Lost in Final
2007: UCLA: Lost in Final 4


So there you have it, 16 years of pick ems and 2 champions compared to 8 2nd round losers. So there is a 50% chance that my team to win it all gets bounced on Sat or Sunday.


I have also picked Pac 10 teams 7 of the 16 years, including 7 of the last 9. Oh and btw, the Pac 10 has won the title twice since I started picking, BUT NOT IN ONE OF MY 7 YEARS! So while I hope the first trend does not continue, there is a solid chance that I'll still be picking a team who plays in the Pacific time zone. But you will just have to tune in tomorrow to see who that might be.

Goooo Georgia Bulldogs!

This might seem blasphemous, but when the Badgers take the floor at 2:30 today to kill the chief once and for all, my attention might be turned about 700 miles to the southeast in Atlanta. There, in an arena filled only with press, families, bands, cheerleaders, and players Georgia will take the court for the 3rd time in 28 hours and battle to keep their season alive, and perhaps save the job of their coach Dennis Felton.

Last week several stories came out on the net speculating that the SEC tourney will be Felton's last hurrah as Georgia coach. The guy who took over a program that was awash in NCAA violations (not to mention an ethical wasteland) now appeared he was going to be shown the door because he kicked malconents off the team and actually expected his players to go to class. Of course, he did not win either, which after 5 years will put any coach outside of Evanston, IL right in the firing line. Still, I always got the feeling that firing Felton would be irresponsible. The guy certainly can coach, and if he was called upon to lead the program because he was an ethical guy, then that should count for something.

So here we are, 22 hours since the Dawgs took the court for their quarterfinal game and according to Mark "SEC" Schlabach, it appears Felton might have already done enough to save his job.

I suggest everyone check out the column, its amazing that a team with 9 scholarship players, whose best player fouled out of BOTH games yesterday were still able to win 2 games and put themselves in a position to crash the dance.

So hunker down you hairy dogs, one more win to be the clubhouse leader for feel good sports story of 2008.


SOME MORE NOTES ON YESTERDAY:

Bo Owns Izzo: I used to be one of the gazillion people out there who thought Tom Izzo walked on water. But after watching Bo Ryan coach circles around him AGAIN yesterday, I can say my Izzo mancrush is over.

Say what you want about the refs, but it was clear from the outset the game was going to be called tough. Izzo either failed to adjust, or his big men ignored him. Of course, there was certainly no conspiracy to screw the Spartans, anyone who thinks that is nuts. Flowers, Landry, and Butch all had to spend time on the bench with foul troubles. The only two differences between those three and Suton, Ibok, Naymick, and Morgan, is that Bo did not put them in positions to commit fouls and when they were in the game they did not commit brain dead fouls. Indeed it was stupid fouls that killed the Spartans: Ibok fouls out when he lunges at Butch taking a 3, on the next posession Naymick loses a rebound to Krabby and decides to give him a bear hug- stupid stupid. I forget how Suton went out, but after he left we saw my guy Morgan once again go after Krabby after an offensive rebound. 4 guys fouled out on at least 3 dumb fouls. That, is coaching.

Izzo also got worked by Bo in the post. Bo recognized that by playing Big and working Landry against either foul plagued, or really shorter Spartans Landry could own his defender in the post 1 on 1. With Izzo choosing to not double the post until the Badgers had cut the lead to 5 or 6 Wisconsin was able to turn the momentum around and get back in a game that they really had no business being in.


REMOVE HEADS FROM RECTUMS:

What is going on with this team in Indy? I have been less than impressed with the effort so far. Sure, they were resilient yesterday and all that crap, but the first 30 minutes were a complete disaster. Bad offense, bad defense, not boxing out, Brian Butch playing like he did as a freshman, stupid passes, and an overall poor effort. This came on the heels of a terrible offensive effort on Friday versus Michigan that saw Butch set a BTT record for missing 8,236 shots in the paint. Hopefully the Badgers will continue their roll from the last 10 minutes of the game and put away the Illini early

WITH OR WITHOUT HUGHES:

I hope Travon never leaves the bench today. Wisconsin is a 2-3 seed no matter what happens today. The Badgers can also now pencil themselves in for a Thursday afternoon game in Omaha. This is what sucks: the team plays from 2:30-4:30 today. Watches the selection show in Indy. Then gets on the bus/plane to get back to Madison.
If they are smart the coaches already have mini scouting reports and maybe a tape or two on the opponent- someone like Belmont. The coaches start formulating their game plans on the trip home and then work late into the night.
Tomorrow morning: team meeting, regular afternoon practice.

Then things go to hell really quick. From my experiences travelling with the team 3 times for opening round games (1 Thurs, 2 Fri) here is the schedule that Dick Bennett used for the Thurs round in 2000:

9AM: Shoot around at Kohl

10:30 Leave for airport

11AM: Charter plane leaves airport

EARLY AFTERNOON: CHeck into hotel, get ready

30 mins later: leave for arena for private practice

Evening: team dinner, meetings, film study

9PMish: Travon Davis "hot tub treatment" with members of UW spirit squad.

The next day is just as hectic as each site oppens up their arenas to the fans who can come and watch a 60 minute public practice where, really, nothing gets done.

That team in 2000 had the benefit of not playing until Thurs night- the late game, but with Kansas seemingly headed for Omaha, there is a good chance the Badgers will be taking the court during daylight hours, making the turn around even more daunting.

The bottom line: sit Hughes today, work in Leuer and Jarmusz and there is no shame in losing on Saturday in the BTT


SEED MATH:

And finally, to wrap up my week of percentages:

1 Seed: 0%
4+ seeds: 0%
2 seed: 65% Wisconsin wins and they are a 2
3 seed: 35% The Badgers lose and they are a 3.

Easy enough. Go Red!