What's In Your Wallet?

So New Year's Eve is finally here. Let me start by wishing everybody a healthy and prosperous 2007.

I am all about accountability (as so is the Minny AD apparently), so let's review my 2006 Bowl picks to date. My record so far is 13-7, which is not great but it will do. My picks consisted of the "good" (picking BYU to roll over the Ducks), the "bad" (picking NIU to beat TCU), and the "ugly" (picking VT to win in a low scoring Chick-Fil-a Bowl).

So now we arrive on the eve of the Capital One Bowl. Having plenty of time to think about this one, I see this as a game of two evenly matched teams (and so does Vegas). As every Badger fan knows by now, Arkansas is so scary because it has arguably the best running back tandem in the nation in McFadden and Jones. McFadden, who is still recovering from a high ankle sprain suffered in the SEC Championship game, has to be considered a favorite to win the Heisman in 2007.

However, as good as the Razorback running game has been, the Arkansas passing attack has been that bad. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's spread offense has failed to take flight, but to his credit he has adjusted to his strength by putting McFadden in the shotgun and letting him run or pass.

There is no way to completely shut down the Arkansas running attack and the Badgers should be able to come away with a victory if they hold McFadden and Jones to one long TD run (40 yards or more). The defensive front four will have to play their best game of the year, but the depth at DT and DE should allow D coordinator Hankwitz to keep fresh bodies on the field.

Offensively, the Badgers balanced attack will be tested by the speed of an SEC defense. From all accounts, Stocco is back to 100%, but I would expect him to display some rust and come out slowly. Hill will have to hit the holes quickly, because they will quickly disappear because of Arkansas' D speed.

As Heals touched on briefly, the area where Arkansas has a huge advantage is special teams. McFadden and Jones are each a threat to take a kickoff back and Bielema's insistence on sticking with Hampton means that he is a threat to put the ball on the turf during a punt return.

I predict that Arkansas will get out to a quick start, scoring on an early TD by McFadden. Wisconsin will counter with a TD late in the first quarter, and from there the teams will settle in and play to their strengths. I expect Wisconsin to win the turnover battle and our outside LBs have the speed to keep up with McFadden and Jones.

Beckum should be able to exploit the middle of the field and Hubbard will get behind the DBs to connect with Stocco for a long TD pass. The Badgers will be up by a FG at the start of the 3rd quarter. The Badger D will come up with a big 3 and out to start the 4th and from there the offense will wear down the Hogs and score on a game clinching Hill TD. McFadden will score a TD late to make the final score 24-21.

The win over Arkansas will propel the Badgers to a pre-season top 10 ranking next year and more great things to come.