The Dream is still alive

Now that we have still not calmed down from the win in Bloomington last night we need to talk about what will be the #1 Big Ten Hoops story in 2008. No, not Sampson, not Purdue, not the Badgers. No, the BIG story this year is the pending perfect season by the Northwestern University Wildcats.
Right now the Cats sit dead last in the conference at 0-11. Out of those 11 losses, 11 (11!) have been by 10 or more points. While NU has been competitive in some games for 20-30 minutes they have ended up getting torched in every single Big 10 game.

And, of the 7 games remaining there are 2, maybe 3 games they would even have a chance at:

Purdue: Boilers are white hot, this will be another NU loss

@Iowa: Could be their closest game this season, but they aren't winning in Iowa City

Indiana: Who cares who is coaching the Hoosiers? IU rolls

@Michigan: One of those 2-3 potential chance games. But I can't see them winning on the road unless Michigan is terrible on that night

@Purdue: Boilers will be battling for a Big 10 title, they aren't losing this one

Iowa: Their best chance for a win. If they go 1-17, this will be the 1

Wisconsin: Of course, Badgers might have a chance to win the BT title and send the Cats to 0-18. Of course the only thing standing in the way is a Badger game at Welsh-Ryan arena. Chances I get any sleep the night before the game: 0%


Right now you have to give the Cats at 75% chance at completing the perfect season and if that happens I cannot see Bill Carmody keeping his job. Sure Carmody has struggled in his tenure in Evanston, but his teams are usually good for a memorable upset or 3. And while this team is young, they still have Kevin Coble. Also, don't young talented teams get better as the year goes on? So either this team has been poorly coached or poorly recruited. I'll go with a little bit of each.

The bigger question might be, what is the matter with this program?

I have not researched this at all, but my recollection has NU playing one whopping game on the BT Tourney Friday and never being seeded higher than #8. Save for the 98-99 season when the 7th year senior Evan Eschmeier was on the team the Wildcats have enjoyed a decade of futility- oh and things were not much better before the BT tourney era.

Northwestern has been consistently pathetic in a sport where that is increasingly difficult for big name programs. To prove this point- take the 5 other BCS conferences and name the worst program in each of those leagues: Oregon State, Baylor, Auburn, Virginia Tech, and South Florida would be my picks. However, in 99 Auburn was actually a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney, Va Tech was a #5 seed last year. Baylor has a great chance to make the tourney this year and is headed in the right direction. Only OSU and USF can come close to matching the consistent levels of futility that Northwestern has experienced and USF deserves a break because they have only been in the Big East for a few years and did have moderate success during their time in C-USA.

What makes the the problems with the NU program even more puzzling is the peaks of success that the football program has experienced over the past 15 years. In 15 years the football cats have experienced One Rose Bowl, 3 shared Big 10 titles and a handful of bowl games. One would think that being able to succeed with a football program would be more difficult than being able to finish 6th just one season in basketball. Afterall, football has more players, and costs more money to lure the big name coaches and create top notch facilities for the players.

So once again, what is the problem with NU hoops?

I believe that most of the problems with the program are self-inflicted. While Bill Carmody seems like a nice man and from what I have heard, a solid teacher of basketball, he is not a big time baskeball coach. He has not been able to recruit good talent to Evanston and save for a couple of exceptions he has not been able to harness the talent once it arrives on campus. In addition, his Princeton style seems to keep some of the good local talent away from the north suburbs.

More self-inflicted wounds involve the poorest facilities in the Big 10. First time fans who enter Welsh-Ryan arena feel like they have entered into an over-sized high school gym. I cannot imagine players from East Aurora or Downers North are impressed when they realize that their potential college gym is just slightly larger (and probably more quiet) than their current gyms.

NU apologists seem to always want to point at the high academic standards as a reason that good players cannot attend Northwestern- but these same players have no trouble attending schools with equally rigorous standards like Vanderbilt. While Vandy is certainly no power in the SEC they are good for an NCAA bid 2-3 of every 5 years.


While the Northwestern administration has stood by Carmody during his tenure in Evanston this season SHOULD be the breaking point. Northwestern will be hard pressed to finish in the top 7 under Carmody. While I am skeptical that Northwestern will ever be able to have consistent 8-10 win seasons in conference they should be able to compete for an NIT bid 2 of every 5 years and receive an NCAA birth sometime in the next 6-8 seasons. But the Cats will need to find a coach who has proven that he can recruit solid players, can win with programs that are traditionally at the bottom of their conference, and be able to excite the NU supporters and win over the attention of high school recruits in the fertile Chicago suburbs.

Oh, I guess this is the time where I am supposed to throw out some names but it is Thursday night and I am stumped. What is Paul Westphal doing these days? I'm sure he'd love Evanston after working in Malibu.

Keep Away

The Wisconsin Badgers are 19-4 this season, having lost twice in BT play to Purdue. I was in attendance for both contests, and I am clearly bad luck, that or the Badgers simply don't match up well with the Boilers. True, Purdue is a three-point loss at MSU from being undefeated in league play, so maybe the latter can be said about the rest of the league. From these eyes, the bigger Badgers, who vastly outrebounded the Boilers and kept the contest close at the FT line, match up poorly against a team with few post-up options, but a least four starters who can shoot from any place on the court.

Several culprits were at play on Saturday, a diversion from the loss two weeks ago when a late non-call should have sent the game into OT. First, the statistics are simple. The Badgers shot a season low 35% while allowing their opponent to eclipse 50% for the first time, with the Boilers shooting a blistering 55%. This was a product of our bigs' failure to show off screens, a overall lapse in closing out shooters along the arc, and the mismatches the ensued off of defensive switches.

Should we face the Boilers at the BT tournament in Indy, my suggestion would be to begin the game with a smaller line-up with either JaBo or Leuer on the floor. Bring Butch and Stiemsma in the game when the match-up warrants, but Landry can handle the Bosnian just fine thank you, and Krabby can contain Hummel. Butch simply cannot defend short of occasional shot blocks, and this is the reason Bo keeps him on the pine late in close contests.

Two, Travon Hughes had a horrible game at the point. He contributed little in the form of dribble penetration, thus the dearth of open shots along the perimeter, and turned the ball over in self-inflicted fashion on too many occasions to count. One fast break late in the game summarized the team's struggles. Hughes had a two-on-one that he tried to finish himself instead of drawing the defender and kicking to his trailer for a layup. Purdue grabbed the rebound, hoisted it downcourt for an easy layup of their own, then drained a 3 on the ensuing possession. Down 9, it was over for all intents and purposes.

Three, Purdue plays a physical, grab and hand check defensive style that kept the Badgers going to the FT line, but even though the team shot a season-high percentage, coupled with 20 turnovers, they were trading 2's and blanks for 3's on the other end. The Boilers simply cannot be beaten with this aggressive style coupled with money ball shots all over the court.

Looking ahead, the Badgers face a tough road, especially should they lose on Wednesday at IU. MSU should give Purdue another run for their money tomorrow, and the Boilers still must travel to Bloomington themselves. Anything more than 3 losses in the league will probably end the Badgers' title hopes, with the championship seemingly safe somewhere in the Hoosier State. Bucky will win at home next Saturday against the Gophers, with the home game against Penn St. and road contest in Evanston seemingly gimmes. On the road at UI and OSU will be tough, along with the Kohl Center matchup with Sparty.

Needless to say, Bucky went from inside position of the front row to the outside at best by failing to hold court at home. Counting on the young Boilers to stumble is poor planning, for Bucky must take its collective fate back and win in Bloomington. Saturday's disappointing loss need not break this team; it can be reborn on Wednesday with a second blow to the Hooisers.