Six is good, you got a problem with six?

If we can only agree on one thing about the first 2 months of the college basketball season it is that the Big Ten is much deeper than it has been in the past. 8 of the 11 teams have realistic NCAA hopes and I would even argue that NU has that potential as long as they can steal some early wins in conference play- something they failed to do vs PSU on Wednesday, however.

After slumming with 4-5 bids in the NCAA in recent years the BT should be able to pull 6, or even 7 teams into the dance.
Think that is a little optimistic? It actually might not be when you look at the college hoops landscape.

Taking the auto bids for the small conferences while throwing 2 bids at the MVC, WCC, MWC, and A-10 and then 2 extra bids in case teams like Butler or Memphis do not win their conference tournies, that gives us 31 of 65 bids. Which leaves 34 bids left for the 6 BCS conferences.

So, now breaking those down:

Big East: I like this conference getting 9 bids. 10 could be ambitious because teams like WVU, Providence and Cinci wil lose 9+ games in conference and be excluded come March.

SEC: Wow, the SEC is not very good this year, but some schools put up gaudy non-conf records feasting on nothing but garbage. I'll give them 5 right now, with a potential for a 6th should someone like S Carolina or LSU have a good league slate

Big 12: Like the SEC, another one that has an awful lot of teams roll up good NC records against teams from the SWAC. I will right now go with 5 teams.

So after 3 leagues that is 19 teams, room for 15 more

Pac 10: 6 teams have double-digit wins and that does not include Arizona, so 7 have a chance, but I will only take 4 from a very very weak league

ACC: The ACC's cream will probably allow for 6 teams to make it.

So, after that we have 5 spots remaining that should be locked in for the Big 10.
I think even if teams like Butler, Ill State, and Memphis win their tournies it will be difficult for the conference to get a 7th team. A week ago many in the media would have had you believe that the Badgers would have been that 6th or 7th team, but a lot of us know otherwise.

Who will be able to experience the joy of 6, let's look ahead with my first power rankings of the year (through Sunday's action):

NCAA LOCKS:

1. Michigan State: The Spartans have bounced back nicely from a rough start and seem to be ready to compete for the league title and a 2 seed in March.

2. Purdue: Despite the loss to Illinois the Boilers will be in the top 3 all year long. They will live and die by their outside shooting, which means some head scratching losses like the one at home to the Illini this week.

NCAA PROBABLES:

3. Wisconsin: Yeah, remember them? The Badgers non-conf results might not be NCAA worthy, but they probably only need 10 BT wins to get in thanks to at least playing a tough NC schedule. Already 1/5 of the way there.

4. Illinois: The Illini edge out Michigan here because I think they are going to be just a tad more consistent than the Wolverines this season. In other words, I can see UM going to Bloomington and losing, I cannot see the Illini doing that.

NCAA BUBBLE WATCH OR NIT FAVORITES:

5. Michigan: Harris and Simms, Harris and Simms, oh and Novak knocking down the 3's. I like Michigan going about 9-9 and maybe drawing the 6 seed in Indy, but with their two huge non-conf scalps that could get them in.

6. Minnesota: Personally, I think Minnesota is a year away. Color me unimpressed with their victory over a tired Louisville team in front of an empty football stadium in freaking Phoenix. Another team that is going to win 8-10 conference games, but unlike Michigan they do not have the non-conf heft.

7. Penn State: The Lions are certainly improved. Enough to make the NCAA tourney? Maybe not. Just like the 2 teams ahead of them and the one behind them, they appear destined for 8-10 wins

8. Ohio State: Think this is too low? If so, you might want to check out the Buckeyes. They have been unimpressive to awful in their last three games with their lone win being over a bad Iowa team at home. Still, if the Big Ten gets 6 teams, these guys could jump PSU and Minn or Michigan to claim that spot.

THE QUESTION MARK:

9. Northwestern: A week ago I would have had the Cats ranked 7th. Words cannot explain how damaging that loss to PSU was on Wednesday. A chance to go 1-0 and beat a team of your same skill level on the road would have been HUGE for this team. Instead they are 0-2 with a trip to Madison on Wednesday. What it all means is probably a 5-7 win season and a potential NIT birth. However, if this team can gel before the end of the week after next and maybe start 2-4 they could be a scary team in February and threaten the NCAA bubble.


AT LEAST WE WON OUR BOWL GAME:

10. Iowa: I do not think much of the Hawkeyes and think their close shave against OSU says more about the Bucks than the Hawks. I see them getting 4 or 5 BT wins, but it could be less if they cannot defend the home court against the middle of the league.

WAIT TIL (the year after) NEXT YEAR:

11. Indiana: I cannot see IU going 0-18 when you have enough teams like OSU and Michigan who could lack concentration over an 18 game schedule. But if IU gets 4 wins Tom Crean might win coach of the year.
Oh, speaking of which, in the BTN ad with all the coaches, why is he so angry? Is this guy ever look happy? Or does he wake up every morning and watch someone pee in his Wheaties before sitting down for breakfast?
Oh, and something else, Bo Ryan's first year in Madison was supposed to be a complete disaster- 6 wins would have been a huge accomplishment- and yet he won the conference. Now, the cupboard was not as completely bare in Madison in 2001 as it is in Bloomington this year, but Ryan lost 5 top players to graduation, Ricky Bower to transfer, and their #1 recruit (Latrell Flemming) to a medical condition. His two seniors were Travon Davis and Charlie Wills. Anders Helmigk was supposed to be a main contributor! The bottom line is, Crean deserves a break for this year, but I am not going to buy that a 2-16 season is not at all his fault.