The Best Offense in the Big Ten

File this under the heading "looks can be decieving." According to tempo-free statistics,
Wisconsin had the best offense in the Big Ten during conference play. The Badgers scored 1.08 points per possession (PPP), edging out MSU by 0.02 PPP.

The reason that Wisconsin wasn't able to crack the top 3? Its defense -- which was fifth best in the conference, allowing 1.00 PPP. The three teams that finished ahead of Wisconsin all allowed less than 0.95 PPP. For comparison sake, Wisconsin allowed 0.83 PPP over the course of the 07-08 season and was ranked second in the nation in defensive efficiency.

In my mind, the drop-off in defensive efficiency can be tied to the graduation of Flowers, Butch and Steisma. The sophomores and juniors on this year's squad have not been able to step up and fill the big shoes of the departed players. If Wisconsin is going to make a run in the Big Ten Tourney and the Dance, the defensive play must get better.

Big Ten Tournament Battleground

Sorry to steal your thunder Heals, but here are my quick picks for the first day of the BTT:

Northwestern (9) over Minnesota (8) 57-54
Michigan (7) over Iowa (10) 65-60
Penn St. (6) over Indiana (11) 63-62

Explanation: Northwestern is playing as well as anybody in the Big Ten right now. Minnesota's offense is not good in the half-court and Northwestern will not allow this game to be back-and-forth will a lot of transition points, as Minnesota likes. The Cats will go through and the Gophers will go home.

Michigan is coming off a huge win at Minnesota. Iowa is coming off another OT game at home. Iowa has not beaten a single Big Ten team away from home and the trend will continue today.

Penn St. is coming off a disappointing loss at Iowa that could have sealed up the #2 seed. Indiana is playing at "home" with nothing to play for except the chance to ruin Penn St.'s season. I thank goodness that Wisconsin avoiding the #6 seed because this game vs. Indiana is a no-win situation. If you win, it is because you should have beaten the team with 1 conference win. If you lose, it is an inexcusable loss that will resonate with the selection committee. I expect Indiana to play well in front of a friendly crowd and really challenge Penn St. These two teams played less than two weeks ago in State College and Indiana was in it to the end. However, as he has shown during the year, Talor Battle will find a way to get the Nittany Lions the win.

QUARTERFINALS

Michigan St. (1) over Minnesota (8) 70-55
Wisconsin (4) over Ohio St. (5) 60-58
Michigan (7) over Illinois (2) 63-60
Purdue (3) over Penn St. (6) 66-60

Explanation: Michigan St. is peaking at the end of the season and playing for a #1 seed if it can pull of the double. I expect Michigan St. to display its lock-down defense and stymie a Minnesota team that has trouble running its offense in the half-court. Minnesota will not be able to improve its bubble position and be sweating it out at 5 pm Sunday.

Wisconsin and Ohio State will be a repeat from the February 14th game in Madison -- hard fought and down to the last possession. The key match-ups will be Krabbenhoft vs. Turner, Bohannon vs. Diebler and Leuer/Landry vs. Mullins. I expect Krabbenhoft and Landry to display senior leadership and lead the Badgers over a senior-less Buckeye team.

As I blogged earlier, I'm not sold on this Illinois team. They play great defense, but the offense is hit-or-miss. I expect a lot of misses from the Illini offense and the Wolverines to win a game they need to win to make the big dance.

Finally, Purdue is coming off back-to-back losses to finish the season and faces a PSU team that waltzed past Indiana yesterday. I believe that Purdue is going to play well in the BTT, motivated by the loss in last years' quarterfinals. I don't put too much stake in PSU's win yesterday and I expect the Purdue defense to slow down Talor Battle and "cut-off the head" of PSU's offense. Purdue looks to be a good bet to make the finals in the BTT.

Accountability

Before the season I predicted every game on the Big Ten Mens' Basketball Schedule. Here was my prediction for the final regular season standings:

1. Michigan St.: 16-2
2. Purdue: 14-4
2. Wisconsin: 14-4
4. Michigan: 12-6
4. Minnesota: 12-6
6. Ohio St.: 8-10
7. Illinois: 6-12
7. Northwestern: 6-12
7. Penn St.: 6-12
10. Iowa: 5-13
11. Indiana: 0-18



Here are the actual final regular season standings:


1. Michigan St.: 15-3
2. Illinois: 11-7
3. Purdue: 11-7
4. Wisconsin: 10-8
5. Ohio St.: 10-8
6. Penn St.: 10-8
7. Michigan: 9-9
8. Minnesota: 9-9
9. Northwestern: 8-10
10. Iowa: 5-13
11. Indiana: 1-17



So let's analyze my predictions John Wayne style:

The Good - Picking MSU to win the title and Indiana to finish dead last. However, I would have never predicted that MSU would have lost two home games, much less games to Northwestern and Penn St. I also thought that Iowa would be able to take Indiana at Bloomington -- silly me.

The Bad - Picking Minnesota and Michigan to each finish 12-6. I thought both of these teams were poised to make the leap in their second year with a new coach. Minnesota was actually closer to 7-11 if you consider the two "wins" vs. UW. I still contend that Carter committed goaltending on JBo's layup in the first meeting and UW's four corners approach in the second game was disappointing. Michigan was frisky at home, but could not deliver on the road until its final game at Minnesota. Plus Michigan relies too heavily on the 3 pointer. When they are on, they are hard to beat. When they are off, they are easy to defend.

The Ugly - Picking Illinois and Penn St. to each finish 6-12. Allow me to defend these predictions though - I still can't figure out how Illinois won 11 games. Ok, I guess they played pretty good defense, but that offense was offensive at times. And they should have lost at Northwestern had the Wildcats had any ability to score a basket in the last 5 minutes of that game. With respect to Penn St., the were actually outscored over the course of the Big Ten season, so that should have meant a below .500 record. But somehow the Nittany Lions won 10 games, including two gifts was Illinois and a win vs. a Purdue team without Hummel or Kramer (not as big a loss as Hummel).

On to the Big Ten Tournament.

And the Winner of the BT Tournament Will Be...

Click here to vote in the Chicago Tribune poll. Little surprise that UI has the early lead, followed by MSU, then Purdue, with Bucky pulling in the same place as their position in the conference standings. I'll be back prior to the tournament with my picks for what should be an interesting weekend in Indy.