A lot going on in the Big 10 the past few weeks, even with just one team still playing, for those of you who have gone into the bunker post 3/18, here are the highlights:
-Steve Alford left Iowa for, um, New Mexico
-Tommy Ammaker was fired
-Tom Izzo is a potential candidate for the Kentucky job
-Alando Tucker was named senior of the year
-Tubby freaking Smith was hired by Minnesota
-Todd Lickleiter was hired by Iowa
-Jon Beilein was hired by Michigan
-OSU lost to Florida...again
So there has been a lot going on, and the way to make sense of the Big 10 is with two sets of power rankings: first, a coaching power ranking, then a prediction for next year.
In regards to the coach rankings this takes into account past success, how good of a coach they are, recruiting, and other. Since I think Izzo will stay at MSU we'll keep him in the discussion for now.
Going backwards:
11. Eddie DeChellis: Nothing to show for his tenure in State College, or his tenure anywhere else for that matter
10. Bill Carmody: Poor recruiter, poor in game coach, poor program. Pretty much all he can say is that they play Wisconsin tough at home
9. Bruce Weber: Oh sure he's been to a national title game, but he does not recruit well, which is not good because he is only an ok coach. Was verrrrrrry lucky his team somehow got an invite to the dance this year
8. Todd Lickleiter: 2 good years at Butler- one with Thad Matta's kids and the other was this year. Gee, after 5 years at UWGB including one great year with Dick Bennett's players were teams clammoring for Mike Heidemann?? Yeah, didnt think so. I do not think this is a good hire for Iowa. But hey, at least he's not a complete d-bag like their former coach.
Speaking of which, (and we'll touch on this more in a minute) if you couldnt recruit any good players to come to your school, the least you could do after leaving for another school is to stop recruiting the riff raff you did get committments from. What an asshole
7. Jon Beilein: Will bring the 1-3-1 to the Big 10 and he did a pretty good job in Morgantown, I think he could go either way at Michigan
6. Matt Painter: Gets the nod because he has shown to be a better recruiter than Beilein was at WVU. Don't forget, Chris Lowery's success at SIU has been partially because Painter did not leave the cupboard bare when he left for West Lafayette
5. Kelvin Sampson: Higher than I thought he would be. Did a good job with a team that was mostly devoid of talent. That said, I do not think he is a very good in-game coach, which is usually what kills his teams in the tourney. Oh, and if you want to argue with that point the only thing I will say: Lance Stemler
4. Tubby Smith: National Title, averaged 26.3 wins per year in Lexington, was fanfuckingtastic at Georgia and Tulsa. Dude will be able to flat out coach up the Gophers. As a Badger fan this hire scares the hell out of me.
3. Bo Ryan: Would have been higher 6 weeks ago, but I really don't think he coached very well down the stretch. This team seemed to hit its peak in December and only stayed in the top 10 because of Tucker and the Big 10 being complete garbage. I still trust in my coach, but some day someone is going to have to explain to me what the hell kind of an offense they were running the last 4 weeks of the year
2. Thad Matta: Can recruit and I think he can coach better than 90% of the coaches in America. All of the morons out there who said Matta coached a bad tourney need to remember that down 17 his team roared out of the half against Tennessee, that they flat out crushed Xavier in OT without Oden and that they outplayed Georgetown with Oden MIA. Those people also need to pop in the tape of the game in March 2005 when OSU beat undefeated Illinois.
1. Tom Izzo: National title, great recruiter. Has struggled the past few years, but I dont think anyone wouldnt trade (or strongly consider trading) their coach for him
Ok, it's power ranking time. This is based on losses, additions, and my off-season crystal ball for both. Freshmen rankings based on ESPN.com
Your comments are encouraged:
1. Michigan State
Losses: Nobody
Additions: PG ranked #37 SG #41, SG#47
NCAA: Top 2 seed, final 4 contender
Analysis: How can you pick against a team with this much talent returning? If they can get some offense out of the freshmen, they will be golden. Walton is another key- if he can add some extra scoring punch they will be dangerous.
2. Wisconsin
Losses: Tucker, Taylor, Chappell (thank god)
Additions: PF #86, PF#93, Brian Butch from injury
NCAA: 5 seed, sweet 16
Analysis: Ok, kind of a homer pick here, but the Badgers will be really good if they actually work on running the swing offense. Too often this year it became stand around and if Tucker cant get a shot, someone jack up a 3. Losing Chappell will also force teams to respect 5 scorers on the floor. They will need an immediate impact from Keaton Nankivil to contend for this spot, however. Also, Krabbenhoft and Landry need to get their heads out of their asses.
3. Indiana:
Losses: Wilmot, Calloway
Additions: Eric Gordon #2, PF #78
NCAA: 4 seed, 2nd round or sweet 16
Analysis: Will probably contend for the Big 10 and would actually be a great tourney champ pick. Will need Gordon to step in right away as they need scoring and someone who can beat a guy off the dribble. Best case scenario is that Gordon does this and frees up DJ to dominate down low. Worst case scenario is that Gordon struggles in the physical Big 10 and DJ White continues to disappear at the end of games. Wilmot bailed this team out a lot this year (he was probably responsible for 2-3 conference wins) and they'll need someone to step up down the stretch since the CW says Sampson will probably revert to his old coaching ways next year
4. Ohio State
Losses: Oden (90%) Ivan Harris, Ron Lewis, Mike Conley Jr (50%) and Daequon Cook (25%)
Additions: Kostos Kufos Center ranked #12, SG #40, SF #49, C #74, SF #146
NCAA: 3 seed, 2nd round upset loss
Analysis: This was my #1 pick a few days ago and it still could be, but Oden is gone and I think Conley - yes I know what he said last night- might not be far behind. Conley is the only lottery worthy PG right now and while his family certainluy does not need the money, you gotta strike while the iron is hot and his tourney performance sent his stock sky freaking high. Cook won't be going to the NBA, but I wont be shocked if he transfers. There have been rumblings coming out of Cbus that Cook was not happy with his role and that he oftentimes found himself in Matta's dog house. My guess is that there is a good chance he'll consider a transfer to a school like Marshall or another MAC team.
However, this team will still stay loaded. David Lightey will step right into Ron Lewis' role, they still have the seldom heard from Mark Titus who is a sharp-shooter, and Kufos is supposed to be a big guy who can put it on the floor and shoot from the outside. If Conley does stay- look out. However, if he leaves there will be a cavernous hole at the PG spot. The bet here is that Matta would try to throw Titus out there and try to get Cook the ball by having him handle it more, but that will still be a huge issue against Michael Flowers, Neitzel, Beilein's 1-3-1 and every other defensive minded Big 10 squad. OSU will be overrated even if Conley stays and I think they will ultimately let down.
5. Purdue
Losses: David Teague, Carl Landry
Additions: 4 top 75 recruits, including PG#21, C #41, PF #63 and SF #75
NCAA: 7 seed, 2nd round loss
Analysis: Purdue loses a ton of scoring, but they get a lot with a great recruiting class. The 08 team could mirror the successes of this season, but I don't think they'll have enough big time players to make a deep tourney run or challenge for the top of the Big 10. Certainly they are on the top of the next tier.
6. Penn State
Losses: Two guys who really dont matter
Additions: PF #102
NCAA: Bubble team, 11 seed, first round loss
Analysis: Well I was completely wrong about the Lions this year and I'll probably be completely wrong next as well. But, they have Cornley and Claxton coming back, Morissey started heating up at the end of the year, and most importantly, they are due. So they get the nod over 2 teams that are probably on the same level.
7. Illinois
Losses: Warren "Idiot" Carter, Rich McBride, Chief Illiniwek, and probably Jamar Smith
Additions: PG #65, PF #92, C #114, Eric Gordon- ooops, never mind on that one
NCAA: Bubble team, probably NIT
Analysis: I saw someone rank Illinois 4th going into next year. Clearly this idiot passed out last March and woke up to pen a blog post. First off, this year's team was terrible, second, they finished 6th in a craptacular Big 10 after the first two teams, and 3rd they lose their best scorer and their best all-around player. Oh sure, they'll have size, but absolutely no one who can shoot the ball. Also, Chester Frazier sucks. Maybe, maybe, maybe they can get some help from a decent incoming class (sans Gordon) but I want to know who will actually be able to make an outside shot for this team
8. Minnesota
Additions: Tubby Smith, SG #76
Losses: Nobody
NCAA: Bubble team, NIT
Analysis: I think its safe to say that the top 5 teams will be back in the big dance next March. However, you can probably only pick one of the next 3 teams to join them. Minnesota could have a shot since they return everyone and just the presence of a winning coach should mean 3-4 extra wins throughout the season. Like MSU they return everyone, unlike MSU, that doesnt really mean too much. Tubby will need to find a way to get this team to score more, but maybe he can find that in someone from their incomming class. A competitive team will make the Barn a tough place for the Big 10 to visit.
9. Northwestern
Losses: Tim Doyle, Vince Scott, a couple of other guys who dont really matter
Additions: PG #130 (yes, NU has a top 150 recruit)
NCAA: Nope
Analysis: Not having to learn a new system will propel the Cats to 5-6 conference wins and the 9 seed. Kevin Coble has a shot at making the Big 10 2nd team, and they'll probably win a few games they shouldn't. Their NCAA drought will continue for at least another year, however. My guess is that anything less than 5 Big 10 wins will cost Bill Carmody his job
10. Michigan
Losses: Dion Harris, Brent Pettway, Lester Abram, Courtney Sims
Additions: Jon Beilein, Alex Legion a SG rated #29, and a PG #39
NCAA: NIT
Analysis: Wow, this team really loses a ton of guys. I know Ammaker tried to give the young guys some action towards the end of the year, but wow, that is a lot to lose. Luckily for Coach Belein (or however it is spelled) they'll have some good talent coming in. They could be higher, but the losses combined with learning a new system, and the fact that the top of the conference will be tough, will make it tough sledding in Ann Arbor. Oh sure you can say that Bo Ryan had success in almost the same situation his first year, but Bo also had Kirk Penney, Devin Harris and Mike Wilkinson on that team. Belein would be lucky to have one of those on this team.
11. Iowa
Losses: Adam Haluska, Mike Henderson, Steve Alford (oh wait, that's not a bad thing)
Additions: A coach not named Steve Alford, and NONE, I MEAN ZERO top 150 recruits
NCAA: None
Analysis: I really wanted to make this a post on Steve Alford's d-baggery, but its too long already and I might get motivated this weekend. Losing Haluska is a killer, Tucker was the player of the year in the conference, but Haluska might have been the most valuable to his team.
I really do like Tyler Smith and they might have a few younger players who can step up, but I just cannot see this team doing anything next year. In addition, I am not convinced that Lickleiter is going to do much for this program other than add another freaking impossible name to spell to the Big 10 roster of coaches. Iowa will not only struggle, they will be bad, and last place in the 2007-2008 Big 10.
