Sweater Vest vs. The Hat

Before I get to my pick for the BCS Championship Game, let's recap my predictions for the other Big Ten bowl participants:

The Good: Predicting the exact margin of victory in the Purdue and Illinois bowl games.
The Bad: Wisconsin's performance in the Outback Bowl and my prediction of a 4 point win.
The Ugly: Picking Indiana to "win 8" and underestimating Michigan's desire to send out Lloyd Carr a winner.

Allstate BCS National Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State
Jan. 7, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)

Analysis: The red herring that has been talked about constantly leading up the this game is whether OSU is "fast enough" to keep up with LSU. Can "Slow-hio" keep up with the Tigers? This question is a byproduct of the 2007 Championship Game demolition of OSU at the hands of Florida. The prevailing thought is that Florida used four and five WR sets to spread OSU out and exploit one-on-one matchups. However, OSU primarily used zone coverages in that game. Florida QB Chris Leak was able to find the "soft spots" in the zone and move the ball down the field. He was able to do so because Florida's offensive line gave him enough time.

LSU probably does have more speed on the offensive side of the ball than OSU defense, but I think that it does not match Florida's speed from last year. WRs Doucet, LaFell, and Byrd are all capable of hitting a home run, but they don't run as well as the Florida WRs. QB Matt Flynn is a very good college signal caller and he will spelled at times by QB Ryan Perrilloux, who is a dangerous runner and will give the OSU defense something to worry about. RB Jacob Hester will get most of the carries and he is a tough runner capable of getting the extra yard. RB Trindon Holliday is a speed burner and you can be sure that LSU will try to get him on the edge. Unfortunately for LSU fans, LSU is at its best running out of shotgun formations and two-and-three receiver sets -- however, this is different that the four and five WR sets discussed earlier.

OSU's defense comes in ranked third in the nation in rushing D, only giving up 80 yards per game. However, the Buckeyes surrendered over 250 rushing yards in their loss to Illinois team and allowed an average of six yards per carry in the win at Penn State. Outside of those two games, though, the Buckeyes have been tough to run against - ask Zach Brown. OSU must do certain things to hold LSU's offense in check. First, it must prove capable of matching up in coverage versus multiple-receiver sets. Second, the defensive linemen must stay in their gaps. Third, LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman must read their keys quickly and get to the ball.

The centerpience of OSU offense is RB Chris Wells. He is coming off a 200 yard plus game vs. Michigan and has the ability to burst up the middle and take the ball to the house. I see the game's biggest match-up being the OSU o-line vs. the LSU d-line. Can OSU's center and guards handle All-American DT Glenn Dorsey? Before being slowed by injury, the answer for most of LSU's opponents was "no." OSU QB Todd Boeckman showed throughout the year that he was a capable replacement for Heisman winner Troy Smith. However, Smith struggled mightly in the game vs. Florida and Boeckman struggled in OSU's loss to Illinois. LSU has a talented defensive backfield led by CBs Jonathan Zenon and Chevis Jackson. OSU will counter with two excellent route runners in WRs Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. OSU would do well to pick up three and four yards on first and second down so that they find themselves in manageable third down situations. I have a hunch that OSU's o-line has heard enough about last year's performance and will come up looking to shut up their doubters.

Both teams have above-average special team units, so the team that gets a big return, a coffin-corner punt or a long FG could see momentum swing their way.

Line: LSU -3.5

Pick: Tigers 27-24. Having seen the homefield advantage that LSU enjoys in the Superdome (2002 Sugar Bowl vs. Illinois), as much as I want to pick OSU, I can't. Ohio State is far more focused heading into this year's title game than it was a year ago and coach Tressel certainly has his players' attention in practice, so expect his team to be exceptionally prepared. However, there is just something about the year LSU has had with all the bounces that went their way. "The Hat" seems to have somebody looking over his shoulder and LSU has enjoyed a multitude of breaks this year. The BCS will see its first 2 loss National Champion and hopefully this will accelerate a playoff format.