Let's See How Far We've come

My official bracket projections will be up as soon as Ken Pom (Wisconsin with an 8% chance to win it all!!!!!!) gives me his odds for the other half of the bracket.

But on the eve of that happening we need to talk about something, the TR Kiss of Death, or as we lovingly refer to it the TRKOD. This term was coined on the eve of the 1995 tournament when I mentioned to a friend that the last 3 years I picked tournament winners, my champion lost in the second round each of those years.
Incidentally, those three years were the first three years I started picking teams. Unfortunately, the TRKOD did not die in March of 1995, and it has appeared several times since. It is a bad record, one that needs to be reviewed:

1992 Pick: Kansas. Lost in 2nd round to UTEP
1993: Seton Hall: lost in 2nd round to Memphis State
1994: Umass: Lost in 2nd round to Maryland
1995: Arkansas

Arkansas in 1995 was lucky to actually get out of the first round. In the second round they found themselves matched up against Syracuse in Austin, Texas. The game went into OT and was close with the Hogs enjoying a one point lead, but the cuse had the ball (O my God, O my God) and took a last second shot that was online, but bounced off the rim. I was lying on the ground in agony at the time, but the wings of angels picked me up and led me around the house screaming "THE CURSE IS DEAD"

Unfortunately, the curse was not dead, just suspended. The Hogs ended up losing in the title game to UCLA

1996: Kentucky: Won it all
1997: Kentucky: Lost in title game

Wow, so Kentucky was treating me well. Usually when you find a horse that is a winner you ride that horse until she bucks you, right? RIGHT???
So while Kentucky avenged its 1997 loss by winning it all in 1998, I decided to pick...

1998: Kansas: Lost in 2nd round to URI (AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH)
1999: Stanford: Lost in 2nd round to "I effing hate them" Gonzaga
2000: Stanford: LOST IN 2nd ROUND

Yeah, I was not doing well here. The curse was back. Remember the above comment about riding the winning horse? Yeah, apparently I misunderstood the word "winning" because I found a horse, but she really sucked at the end of March

2001: Stanford: Lost in Elite 8 (hey hey!)
2002: Maryland: Won it all!!!!!!!
2003: Arizona: Lost in Elite 8

Right, so now I just decided to take Pac 10 teams. And on the eve of the 04 tourney I was feeling confident that a one loss Stanford team could not screw this up, right? RIGHT????

2004: Stanford: Lost in 2nd round
2005: Wake Forest: Pittsnoggled in 2nd round.

I hate this world

Ok, for 2006, we got back to basics, meaning taking a Pac 10 team, jut not one named Stanford. And it worked out pretty well:

2006: UCLA: Lost in Final
2007: UCLA: Lost in Final 4


So there you have it, 16 years of pick ems and 2 champions compared to 8 2nd round losers. So there is a 50% chance that my team to win it all gets bounced on Sat or Sunday.


I have also picked Pac 10 teams 7 of the 16 years, including 7 of the last 9. Oh and btw, the Pac 10 has won the title twice since I started picking, BUT NOT IN ONE OF MY 7 YEARS! So while I hope the first trend does not continue, there is a solid chance that I'll still be picking a team who plays in the Pacific time zone. But you will just have to tune in tomorrow to see who that might be.