You're either with us, or you don't watch hoops and you're against us

Editor's note: This post was thought out and mostly written prior to the ghastly first half that we are seeing on tv right now

So we've got a situation here. After Sparty's big win on Saturday night I got ridiculed by a couple of people for congratulating the Big 10 in what they considered a "down" season. Since I have watched a gazillion hours of hoops since around Election Day and since I actually follow the game while others are busy focusing on dopey politicians or their radio show, I actually understand that the Big 10 had a pretty good year. But before I get started at proving myself correct, let's review the following Facebook exchange:

TR is tired of people who don't follow hoops telling him that the BT is having a down year- go Sparty, Go Lions, Go Badgers!

RS: I will be the first to admit that, living in KC, I am better prepared to discuss the Big 12 than the Big 10. However, numbers still don't lie. Two teams in the top 25. Illinois loses to WKU, OSU loses to Siena, and the one good team in the conference gets to the finals.

By that logic, you're going to tell me that the Pac 10 is a great football conference even though USC is the only solid team they've fielded in five years...

JJH: I am sick of people who live and die by the numbers. Watch some fucking games! (JJH later admitted he was drunk and has no idea what point he was trying to prove)

RS: I suppose this would be the wrong time to mention that the Big 10 has never won the Big 10/ACC Challenge? That they're a big fat 0-10?

In the last ten years, the Big 10 has had one national champion and averages just under one team in the Final Four per year. If we look at the last five years, that's zero champions and four teams in the Final ... (and two of those were back in 2005). In three of the last six years, the Big 10 has not been represented at all.

Unless this is third grade and everyone gets a medal, winning and losing is all that matters. Is there something intrinsic about the Big 10 (other than regional bias) that I'm missing here? Or is the "uniqueness" of the Big 10 really just another word for mediocrity?


Ok, all caught up?

Since the Supervisor brought up the last 10 years- even though my point was this season (nothing like ignoring a comment to enhance your side) lets go with the Final Four fields between 2000 and 2009. I've decided to break them down in appearances, schools who made the final 4, championship losses, and championships. Lets look at how we did:


SEC: 4 appearances, 2 schools, 1 loss, 2 titles
PAC Ten: 4/2/2/0
Big Twelve: 6 appearances, 4 schools, 1 loss, 1 title
ACC: 9 appearances, 4 teams, 1 or 2 losses, 3 or 4 titles
BIG Ten: 8 appearances, 5 schools, 2/3 losses, 1/2 wins
CUSA: 3 appearances (MU and Lville were in CUSA for their Final 4 births) 3 schools, 1 loss, no titles
Big East: 5 appearances, 4 schools, no losses, 2 titles.

Yes, once again the RS wanted to use the last 10 years of data to prove a point about the Big 10- that point must be that the Big 10 is on par with every top conference in America. Even if we give the Lville and Marq appearances to the Big East the conference would still trail in appearances and title game losses and have a whopping one more title than the Big 10. To be honest, looking at their numbers, especially with 16 teams, the Big East is the conference that has certainly been overrated over the past decade.

Also, look at the number of schools that have made it. Out of the 11 members of the Big 10, 5 have gone to the Final 4 in the past decade. Only the Big East, with their 16 teams can beat that number. In addition, should we take this data back another 10 years we would be able to add 2 more schools who made it to the final weekend. My argument in favor of the Big 10 this season is that the conference is as deep as any in the country- the fact that almost half their members have made it to the Final 4 in the last decade shows that the top to bottom quality of this conference can not be matched.

Again, the original argument before the RS decided to turn his guns on himself was this season. So lets look at this season.

First off, the Big 10 was ranked either 2nd or 3rd in the RPI all season. The NCAA basketball committee also chose to put 7 teams in the tournament- the same number of teams as the ACC and Big East (the other two conferences ranked in the top 3 of the RPI all season). Those 7 spots were well-deserved. Lets look at the season, what two things do the following teams all have in common?

Butler
Florida State (2)
Texas
UCLA
Duke
Boston College
Washington
Kansas (2)
Louisville (2)
UConn
Mizzou

Each of those teams wore white on the first day of the NCAA tournament and each were defeated by a Big 10 program sometime this year. That is a pretty good list of scalps and would have looked even better had Notre Dame and Davidson not completely wet the bed all season.

The RS also brings up the Big 10-ACC challenge. So let's look at that event this season: The ACC demolished the Big 10 6-5 in the challenge. But those were not the only 11 games between the two conferences this year (there is one tonight, I hear). Maryland also beat MSU, Duke and Michigan split two games, Purdue beat BC. With all of that the breakdown would end up at 8-7 to the ACC, ah but the Big 10 are 2-0 in the tournament giving the midwesterners are 9 to 8 lead going into tonight.

Speaking of the tournament, lets use another control to compare the three conferences that got 7 teams in. Lets see how the schools did compared to their seeds. Did teams underachieve, overachieve, or just achieve what they were slated to do based on their seed. Ths should be fun (parenthesis will mean by how many rounds).

Big East:

Lville: Under
Pitt: Under
Villanova: Over (2)
W Virginia: Under
UConn: Achieved
Syracuse: Achieved
Marquette: Achieved

ACC:

Duke: Under
UNC: Over (1-2)
Wake: Under (2)
BC: Under
FSU: Under*
Clemson: Under*
Maryland: Over

*To a Big 10 team

BIG 10:

MSU: over (2)
Purdue: Over
Illinois: Under
OSU: Under
MIchigan: Over
Wisconsin: Over
Minn: Achieved

The Big 10 schools had a pretty good tournament here. These results show that the conference is not top-heavy, instead it is a deep conference. While you can scoff all you want, lets also keep in mind that both Penn State and Northwestern- two of the non-tourney teams won at Michigan State this year. Penn State also won the NIT in a field that included Kentucky, Creighton, Notre Dame, and ESPN's own St. Mary's.

Sure I could go on- I could bring up academic standards, the problems with recruiting warm weather kids to the upper midwest, and I could even add 5 teams to the conference in order to equal the monstrosity that is the Big East. But my point is more than made. The Big 10 in 2008-2009 is a deep conference, one that has good teams and great teams. A conference with some incredible scalps this season and one that has had a good last few weeks in this tournament.

With so many good players returning, the best is yet to come for the Big 10.

The Best Offense in the Big Ten

File this under the heading "looks can be decieving." According to tempo-free statistics,
Wisconsin had the best offense in the Big Ten during conference play. The Badgers scored 1.08 points per possession (PPP), edging out MSU by 0.02 PPP.

The reason that Wisconsin wasn't able to crack the top 3? Its defense -- which was fifth best in the conference, allowing 1.00 PPP. The three teams that finished ahead of Wisconsin all allowed less than 0.95 PPP. For comparison sake, Wisconsin allowed 0.83 PPP over the course of the 07-08 season and was ranked second in the nation in defensive efficiency.

In my mind, the drop-off in defensive efficiency can be tied to the graduation of Flowers, Butch and Steisma. The sophomores and juniors on this year's squad have not been able to step up and fill the big shoes of the departed players. If Wisconsin is going to make a run in the Big Ten Tourney and the Dance, the defensive play must get better.

Big Ten Tournament Battleground

Sorry to steal your thunder Heals, but here are my quick picks for the first day of the BTT:

Northwestern (9) over Minnesota (8) 57-54
Michigan (7) over Iowa (10) 65-60
Penn St. (6) over Indiana (11) 63-62

Explanation: Northwestern is playing as well as anybody in the Big Ten right now. Minnesota's offense is not good in the half-court and Northwestern will not allow this game to be back-and-forth will a lot of transition points, as Minnesota likes. The Cats will go through and the Gophers will go home.

Michigan is coming off a huge win at Minnesota. Iowa is coming off another OT game at home. Iowa has not beaten a single Big Ten team away from home and the trend will continue today.

Penn St. is coming off a disappointing loss at Iowa that could have sealed up the #2 seed. Indiana is playing at "home" with nothing to play for except the chance to ruin Penn St.'s season. I thank goodness that Wisconsin avoiding the #6 seed because this game vs. Indiana is a no-win situation. If you win, it is because you should have beaten the team with 1 conference win. If you lose, it is an inexcusable loss that will resonate with the selection committee. I expect Indiana to play well in front of a friendly crowd and really challenge Penn St. These two teams played less than two weeks ago in State College and Indiana was in it to the end. However, as he has shown during the year, Talor Battle will find a way to get the Nittany Lions the win.

QUARTERFINALS

Michigan St. (1) over Minnesota (8) 70-55
Wisconsin (4) over Ohio St. (5) 60-58
Michigan (7) over Illinois (2) 63-60
Purdue (3) over Penn St. (6) 66-60

Explanation: Michigan St. is peaking at the end of the season and playing for a #1 seed if it can pull of the double. I expect Michigan St. to display its lock-down defense and stymie a Minnesota team that has trouble running its offense in the half-court. Minnesota will not be able to improve its bubble position and be sweating it out at 5 pm Sunday.

Wisconsin and Ohio State will be a repeat from the February 14th game in Madison -- hard fought and down to the last possession. The key match-ups will be Krabbenhoft vs. Turner, Bohannon vs. Diebler and Leuer/Landry vs. Mullins. I expect Krabbenhoft and Landry to display senior leadership and lead the Badgers over a senior-less Buckeye team.

As I blogged earlier, I'm not sold on this Illinois team. They play great defense, but the offense is hit-or-miss. I expect a lot of misses from the Illini offense and the Wolverines to win a game they need to win to make the big dance.

Finally, Purdue is coming off back-to-back losses to finish the season and faces a PSU team that waltzed past Indiana yesterday. I believe that Purdue is going to play well in the BTT, motivated by the loss in last years' quarterfinals. I don't put too much stake in PSU's win yesterday and I expect the Purdue defense to slow down Talor Battle and "cut-off the head" of PSU's offense. Purdue looks to be a good bet to make the finals in the BTT.

Accountability

Before the season I predicted every game on the Big Ten Mens' Basketball Schedule. Here was my prediction for the final regular season standings:

1. Michigan St.: 16-2
2. Purdue: 14-4
2. Wisconsin: 14-4
4. Michigan: 12-6
4. Minnesota: 12-6
6. Ohio St.: 8-10
7. Illinois: 6-12
7. Northwestern: 6-12
7. Penn St.: 6-12
10. Iowa: 5-13
11. Indiana: 0-18



Here are the actual final regular season standings:


1. Michigan St.: 15-3
2. Illinois: 11-7
3. Purdue: 11-7
4. Wisconsin: 10-8
5. Ohio St.: 10-8
6. Penn St.: 10-8
7. Michigan: 9-9
8. Minnesota: 9-9
9. Northwestern: 8-10
10. Iowa: 5-13
11. Indiana: 1-17



So let's analyze my predictions John Wayne style:

The Good - Picking MSU to win the title and Indiana to finish dead last. However, I would have never predicted that MSU would have lost two home games, much less games to Northwestern and Penn St. I also thought that Iowa would be able to take Indiana at Bloomington -- silly me.

The Bad - Picking Minnesota and Michigan to each finish 12-6. I thought both of these teams were poised to make the leap in their second year with a new coach. Minnesota was actually closer to 7-11 if you consider the two "wins" vs. UW. I still contend that Carter committed goaltending on JBo's layup in the first meeting and UW's four corners approach in the second game was disappointing. Michigan was frisky at home, but could not deliver on the road until its final game at Minnesota. Plus Michigan relies too heavily on the 3 pointer. When they are on, they are hard to beat. When they are off, they are easy to defend.

The Ugly - Picking Illinois and Penn St. to each finish 6-12. Allow me to defend these predictions though - I still can't figure out how Illinois won 11 games. Ok, I guess they played pretty good defense, but that offense was offensive at times. And they should have lost at Northwestern had the Wildcats had any ability to score a basket in the last 5 minutes of that game. With respect to Penn St., the were actually outscored over the course of the Big Ten season, so that should have meant a below .500 record. But somehow the Nittany Lions won 10 games, including two gifts was Illinois and a win vs. a Purdue team without Hummel or Kramer (not as big a loss as Hummel).

On to the Big Ten Tournament.

And the Winner of the BT Tournament Will Be...

Click here to vote in the Chicago Tribune poll. Little surprise that UI has the early lead, followed by MSU, then Purdue, with Bucky pulling in the same place as their position in the conference standings. I'll be back prior to the tournament with my picks for what should be an interesting weekend in Indy.

Owen Daniels to the Pro Bowl

Texan's TE and former Badger Owen Daniels will be making his way to Honolulu next week for the Pro Bowl in his third season. The former option QB at Naperville Central has come a long way, and is perhaps paving a path for future NFL-bound Badger TE's like Travis Beckham and Garret Graham.

Beat-Up Boilers

Robbie Hummel and Chris Kramer are both nursing injuries for the pre-season conference favorites, and judging by the former's play last Tuesday against Illinois, and the latter's absence down the stretch, this is but a shadow of the same team without them both at full strength. Look for Penn State to give them all they can handle in Happy Valley this evening, and add a little more intrigue to Sunday's showdown at Mackey with Bo's Badgers.

Six is good, you got a problem with six?

If we can only agree on one thing about the first 2 months of the college basketball season it is that the Big Ten is much deeper than it has been in the past. 8 of the 11 teams have realistic NCAA hopes and I would even argue that NU has that potential as long as they can steal some early wins in conference play- something they failed to do vs PSU on Wednesday, however.

After slumming with 4-5 bids in the NCAA in recent years the BT should be able to pull 6, or even 7 teams into the dance.
Think that is a little optimistic? It actually might not be when you look at the college hoops landscape.

Taking the auto bids for the small conferences while throwing 2 bids at the MVC, WCC, MWC, and A-10 and then 2 extra bids in case teams like Butler or Memphis do not win their conference tournies, that gives us 31 of 65 bids. Which leaves 34 bids left for the 6 BCS conferences.

So, now breaking those down:

Big East: I like this conference getting 9 bids. 10 could be ambitious because teams like WVU, Providence and Cinci wil lose 9+ games in conference and be excluded come March.

SEC: Wow, the SEC is not very good this year, but some schools put up gaudy non-conf records feasting on nothing but garbage. I'll give them 5 right now, with a potential for a 6th should someone like S Carolina or LSU have a good league slate

Big 12: Like the SEC, another one that has an awful lot of teams roll up good NC records against teams from the SWAC. I will right now go with 5 teams.

So after 3 leagues that is 19 teams, room for 15 more

Pac 10: 6 teams have double-digit wins and that does not include Arizona, so 7 have a chance, but I will only take 4 from a very very weak league

ACC: The ACC's cream will probably allow for 6 teams to make it.

So, after that we have 5 spots remaining that should be locked in for the Big 10.
I think even if teams like Butler, Ill State, and Memphis win their tournies it will be difficult for the conference to get a 7th team. A week ago many in the media would have had you believe that the Badgers would have been that 6th or 7th team, but a lot of us know otherwise.

Who will be able to experience the joy of 6, let's look ahead with my first power rankings of the year (through Sunday's action):

NCAA LOCKS:

1. Michigan State: The Spartans have bounced back nicely from a rough start and seem to be ready to compete for the league title and a 2 seed in March.

2. Purdue: Despite the loss to Illinois the Boilers will be in the top 3 all year long. They will live and die by their outside shooting, which means some head scratching losses like the one at home to the Illini this week.

NCAA PROBABLES:

3. Wisconsin: Yeah, remember them? The Badgers non-conf results might not be NCAA worthy, but they probably only need 10 BT wins to get in thanks to at least playing a tough NC schedule. Already 1/5 of the way there.

4. Illinois: The Illini edge out Michigan here because I think they are going to be just a tad more consistent than the Wolverines this season. In other words, I can see UM going to Bloomington and losing, I cannot see the Illini doing that.

NCAA BUBBLE WATCH OR NIT FAVORITES:

5. Michigan: Harris and Simms, Harris and Simms, oh and Novak knocking down the 3's. I like Michigan going about 9-9 and maybe drawing the 6 seed in Indy, but with their two huge non-conf scalps that could get them in.

6. Minnesota: Personally, I think Minnesota is a year away. Color me unimpressed with their victory over a tired Louisville team in front of an empty football stadium in freaking Phoenix. Another team that is going to win 8-10 conference games, but unlike Michigan they do not have the non-conf heft.

7. Penn State: The Lions are certainly improved. Enough to make the NCAA tourney? Maybe not. Just like the 2 teams ahead of them and the one behind them, they appear destined for 8-10 wins

8. Ohio State: Think this is too low? If so, you might want to check out the Buckeyes. They have been unimpressive to awful in their last three games with their lone win being over a bad Iowa team at home. Still, if the Big Ten gets 6 teams, these guys could jump PSU and Minn or Michigan to claim that spot.

THE QUESTION MARK:

9. Northwestern: A week ago I would have had the Cats ranked 7th. Words cannot explain how damaging that loss to PSU was on Wednesday. A chance to go 1-0 and beat a team of your same skill level on the road would have been HUGE for this team. Instead they are 0-2 with a trip to Madison on Wednesday. What it all means is probably a 5-7 win season and a potential NIT birth. However, if this team can gel before the end of the week after next and maybe start 2-4 they could be a scary team in February and threaten the NCAA bubble.


AT LEAST WE WON OUR BOWL GAME:

10. Iowa: I do not think much of the Hawkeyes and think their close shave against OSU says more about the Bucks than the Hawks. I see them getting 4 or 5 BT wins, but it could be less if they cannot defend the home court against the middle of the league.

WAIT TIL (the year after) NEXT YEAR:

11. Indiana: I cannot see IU going 0-18 when you have enough teams like OSU and Michigan who could lack concentration over an 18 game schedule. But if IU gets 4 wins Tom Crean might win coach of the year.
Oh, speaking of which, in the BTN ad with all the coaches, why is he so angry? Is this guy ever look happy? Or does he wake up every morning and watch someone pee in his Wheaties before sitting down for breakfast?
Oh, and something else, Bo Ryan's first year in Madison was supposed to be a complete disaster- 6 wins would have been a huge accomplishment- and yet he won the conference. Now, the cupboard was not as completely bare in Madison in 2001 as it is in Bloomington this year, but Ryan lost 5 top players to graduation, Ricky Bower to transfer, and their #1 recruit (Latrell Flemming) to a medical condition. His two seniors were Travon Davis and Charlie Wills. Anders Helmigk was supposed to be a main contributor! The bottom line is, Crean deserves a break for this year, but I am not going to buy that a 2-16 season is not at all his fault.