Seed Money

We are at the half and the Badgers appear to be on their way to their 15th Big 10 win. As the TOTBT resident Bracketologist, I thought I would take a few minutes to speculate what seed the Badgers will get in the Big Dance.

First off, there is no chance the Badgers will be a 6 seed or lower. And, unless there is going to be a disaster in the second half, we can pretty much throw out a 5 seed as well.

So that brings us seeds 1-4, lets break them down:

1: Very small chance. Wisconsin will need to win out and have at least 4 teams completely crap the bed. Unfortunately since Kansas and Texas, and UNC and Duke are in the same conference if one craps the bed, the other probably won't. Also, if UCLA becomes a bed crapper it would probably be at the benefit of Stanford, a team that is probably ahead of the Badgers for a top seed. Oh well

CHANCE OF SEED: 1%


2: There are clearly 7 top teams and only Texas could probably finish lower than a 2 seed, which means that the Badgers are fighting for just one available 2 seed. With Purdue's loss last night here are the potential 2 seeders: Xavier, Stanford, Georgetown, Louisville, Wisconsin. The Louisville/Georgetown loser could eliminate themselves from the 2 and Xavier has 0 margin for error. Stanford can probably lose tomorrow in Pauley and still get the 2, but that would require winning out. The winner of the Georgetown/Lville game probably gets the inside track, but if the Badgers can get to the Big 10 final they would be right there. They might not even need ti win the BT Tourney since we all know that the committee has mailed it in by half time anyway. However, they probably need to at least be playing on Sunday for a shot/

CHANCE OF SEED: 17%

3: This is our sweet spot. A win Sat and a win on Fri and the Badgers can probably count on this seed. The teams that don't get the 2 will be involved in the 3 seed running as well as the Purdue/Indiana winner, Stanford, Notre Dame and UConn. Even Vandy theoretically has a chance if they can win out. But the Badgers have to feel good about ending up here

CHANCE OF SEED: 52%

4: There are really only 3 ways this can happen and 2 of them still might not do enough: Losing to NU and the first round game, Losing to NU or losing in the first round game. The other factor that could come into play is if the committee really believes that the Big 10 is complete garbage, like they did back in 04. I hope that does not happen, but I certainly would not be surprised.

CHANCE OF SEED: 30%