Big Ten Bowl Bonaza

Here is one fan's view of the Big 10 bowl line-up.

Motor City Bowl
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Analysis: This is a rematch of Purdue's only victory against a bowl team. Normally, you would expect a repeat of the September blowout victory, but bowl games can be very unpredictable. CMU's Dan LeFevour joins Florida's Tim Tebow as the nation's only 3,000 yard pass / 1,000 yard rusher. CMU boasts a dynamic offense, but a porous defense -- scoring 30 points nine times but giving up 44 points five times.

Like CMU, Purdue's offense carried the day while the defense struggled to keep up. QB Painter likes to find WR Dorien Bryant, who led the Big Ten in receptions.

Line: PU -7.5

Pick: Purdue 45-42. As much as I would like to take CMU in the upset, their D doesn't appear to be up for the task of slowing down Purdue's offense. However, Purdue playing in Detroit against a more motivated opponent will keep this game close.

Champs Sports Bowl
Boston College vs. Michigan State
Dec. 28, 5 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Analysis: Like death and taxes, MSU's yearly conference meltdown is one of life's guarantees. MSU held four non conference opponents to under 20 points, then allowed 24 or more points in every Big 10 game.

This matchup doesn't seem fair when you realize that one of the ACC's divisional champs is facing an opponent with an under .500 conference record. "Matty Ice" (BC QB Matt Ryan) will show why he is expected to be a first round NFL draft pick.

Line: BC -4

Pick: BC 35-14. BC will keep its stellar bowl record intact with an easy win over Sparty.

Valero Alamo Bowl
Penn State vs. Texas A&M
Dec. 29, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Analysis: Former A&M coach Fran's coaching stint ended in part because he thought it was a good idea to make money on the side selling injury information in a booster newsletter. Former Packer coach Mike Sherman will take over the reigns next year. I would expect the Aggie players to try to make a good first impression for their new coach.

On the other sideline, Coach Paterno keeps chugging along. PSU QB Morelli finished the year strong (5 TDs and 1 INT last 3 games) and showed the PSU fans why many prognosticators picked PSU to finish near the top of the Big 10. A&M prefers to pound defenses with its ground game, but run defense is one of PSU's strengths because of its two great LBs.

Line: PSU -5.5

Pick: PSU 31-21. Nittany Lions have won 8 of their last 10 bowl games and even though they are playing in A&M's home state, the riverwalk will be teaming with PSU fans. PSU will be able to play smashmouth football and win the turnover battle.

Insight Bowl
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State
Dec. 31, 6 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

Analysis: "I'm a man! I'm 40." Yes, you can be sure you will see the clip of OSU coach Mike Gundy going ballistic over a newspaper article calling one of his players soft. OSU has a dynamic offense, led by QB Zac Robinson, RB Dantrell Savage and WR Adarius Bowman. Robinson threw 20 TDs and only 8 INTs, so the Indiana pass rush will need to generate pressure and force Robinson to throw the ball before his receivers get open. WR Bowman, a legitimate pro prospect, missed the last two games with a knee injury, so the Cowboys would really be at a disadvantage if he was not at full strength.

IU offense is directed by Kellen Lewis, a dual-threat QB. Lewis led the team in rushing and combined with RB Marcus Thigpen to gain 1,100 yards on the ground. When Lewis does throw the ball, his first look is WR James Hardy, who set a school record 'with 16 TD catches. Hardy's 6'-7" frame will give him a significant height advantage over any of OSU's DBs.

Line: OSU -4

Pick: IU 41-38. Both teams have great offenses and average defenses. The difference in the game will be (i) IU's special teams, featuring K Austin Starr and returner Tracy Porter and (ii) IU's desire to win for their late head coach Terry Hoeppner. Hoeppner set the goal this year to "play 13" and his team will go one step further and "win 8."

Outback Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Jan. 1, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN)

Analysis: Volunteer RB Arian Foster should be able to exploit a UW defense which has allowed an average of 4.3 yards per carry. This is due in part to the injuries and dismissals the UW d-line has suffered this season. In addition, since the end of the regular season the UW defense suffered a devastating loss -- frosh CB Aaron Henry tore his ACL -- and therefore the UW safeties will not be able to crowd the line to stop the UT rushing attack.

UT QB Erik Ainge has been labeled as a game manager who takes what the defense gives him. Ainge will be without leading WR Lucas Taylor, who is one of many ineligible Volunteer players. Wisconsin CB Jack Ikegwuonu is big, tough and instinctive enough to blanket the other UT WRs and Ikegwuonu will be anxious to put on a showcase performance for the NFL scouts after having an up-and-down season.

I am excited to see the Wisconsin ground game at full strength, as RB PJ Hill is supposedly healthy and RB Lance Smith has served his five away game suspension. I expect OC Paul Chyrst to rotate all three RBs, giving the UT defense looks of the power running game with Hill, the edge running game with Smith and a combination of power and edge with Brown. The UT defense gives up an average of 4.2 yards per carry, but I expect the UW offense to average at least 6.0 yards per carry in the Outback Bowl.

TE Travis Beckum should be the top priority for the UT secondary, as he's caught an astonishing 48 more passes than any other player on the roster. The Volunteers are one of the few teams who have the personnel -- SS Eric Berry -- who could limit Beckum's production. UW QB Tyler Donovan should look to WRs Paul Hubbard and Kyle Jefferson down the field if Beckum has trouble getting open. I expect Hubbard to end his UW career with over 100 yards receiving and a TD.

Wisconsin return man David Gilreath had a break-out game vs. rival Minnesota. He finally is returning the ball with confidence and could provide a couple of key returns which would swing momentum to UW. As has been the case the past three years, Wisconsin will have the edge in kicking and punting with K Taylor Melhaff and P Ken DeBauche.

Line: UT -2

Pick: UW 27-23. C'mon on, did you really think I was going to pick the Volunteers? Since the 2004 Outback Bowl vs. Georgia, the Badgers have picked off SEC opponents in the last two bowl games. In both of those games, the Badgers were the underdog, whereas this game sees the teams more evenly matched. Both the Volunteers and the Badgers should be able to move the ball, but I see the Badgers getting key stops in their red zone and forcing UT to settle for FGs. Offensively, the Badgers will have most of their weapons healthy and/or available (with the exception of WR Luke Swan) for the first time all year. With more than a month to prepare, OC Chyrst will have a dynamic game plan.

Capital One Bowl
Michigan vs. Florida
Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET (ABC)

Analysis: Lloyd Carr will coach his final game as Michigan's head coach in the Capital One Bowl. A digression -- One of the knocks against Carr and the reason most Michigan fans wanted him gone was his record vs. OSU and in bowl games (i.e., "big games"). So Carr "retires" and the Wolverines flirt with Les Miles and Greg Schiano before settling for former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez. The same coach Rodriguez whose team choked away a BCS championship game birth to a 28 point underdog coached by Dave Wannstead??? I think that would qualify as a "big game." The same coach Rodriguez who has lost two straight to S. Florida?? WVU's record vs. top 25 competition is 7-5 since 2004 (i.e., only facing three ranked teams a year). Good luck Michigan.

Back to the analysis -- we have all heard that UM RB Mike Hart is the "heart" of the Wolverines. If Hart isn't 100% and/or isn't able to move the chains, the Wolverines will struggle against a Florida defense that has speed to burn and flies around the field making plays.

Another Wolverine coming off injury, QB Chad Henne, has a legitimate deep threat in WR Mario Manningham. UF will probably roll coverage to stop Manningham, which will leave WR Arrington with single coverage. UF will need to generate pass rush from their undersized D-line to make Henne uncomfortable.

UF's offense is based around the running and throwing of Heisman winner Tim Tebow. Tebow is the kind of mobile QB that has given Michigan fits this year (see Oregon's Dennis Dixon and App. State's Armanti Edwards). Michigan should not play man-to-man because Tebow will take off running after the DBs and LBs turn their back; and if Michigan blitzes, Tebow should be able to find the open man. Michigan will have to mix coverages and do a good job of tackling Tebow when their have a shot (easier said than done). UF's offense doesn't only come from Tebow, as RB Percy Harvin has sub-4.4 speed and UF's receivers continue the tradition of having good speed and stretching defenses.

Line: UF -10.5

Pick: UF 41-28. UF did lose three times this year, so they can be beat. In addition, there is the chance that UF could overlook Michigan because most pundits have picked UF to win big. However, I don't think Michigan has the horses to compete with UF, and Carr will go out having lost the last two games of each of the last four years.

Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC
Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Analysis: I was reading the Trib a few days ago and the sports section had a multi-day feature analyzing the Illinois-USC match-ups in the Rose Bowl. The match-up in question was coaching -- i.e., which coach, Ron Zook or Pete Carroll was better. The Trib gave the edge to Illinois and my jaw dropped. Evidentially, the writer in question thought that one great year for Zook made him a better coach than Carroll -- who has lead the Trojans to two national championships and a BCS bowl each year since 2002.

The Illini rushing attack, led by QB Juice Williams and RB Rashard Mendenhall, will try to run the option against the #4 ranked defense of USC. USC has a great defensive line anchored by DT Sedrick Ellis and DE Lawrence Jackson. The USC D-line should be able to tie up the Illini offensive line and as a result, USC's linebackers, MLB Rey Maualuga and WLB Keith Rivers, will have the room they need in order to pursue sideline-to-sideline in run support. I believe that Illinois will struggle to run the ball and QB Juice Williams will have to throw the ball, which is not his strength.

USC offense played well down the stretch because several of its members recovered from injuries and the unit's inexperienced WRs rounded into form. QB John David Booty threw for four TD against Arizona State in the second-to-last regular season game and blue chip WRs Vidal Hazelton, Patrick Turner and David Ausberry matured from the first half of the season. Booty's favorite target is TE Fred Davis, who led the team with 55 receptions.

Illinois' defense is better equipped to defend against the run, so expect the Trojans to have favorable match-ups in the passing game against every member of the Illini secondary other than CB Vontae Davis.

Illinois LB J Lehman is big, strong and has a great motor. He will have to contend with USC's stable of running backs, all of which were blue chip recruits coming out of high school. The Illini should watch out for super frosh Joe McKnight, who struggled early with injuries, but has shown great moves in the open field.

Line: USC -13.5

Pick: USC 45-21. The Big Ten hasn't won the Rose Bowl since Wisconsin in 2000 and I don't see the Illini carrying the banner this year. USC simply has too much talent on defense to contain a one-dimensional Illini attack. On offense, the USC attack is too multi-dimensional for the Illini to contain. The Illini were fortunate that Missouri and WVU lost the last weekend of the regular season, thus allowing OSU to go to the championship game. In all actuality, the Big Ten should have received only one BCS bid this year.