Thursday, November 08, 2007

The Hunt for Red November

Step 2 of my basketball preview will be breaking down the Badger's schedule game by game. I will withold comments on the Big 10 games until closer to the new year.

I still wish the Badger's non-conference schedule would be tougher, the first 3 games will probably cause the Badgers to have a submarine-like SOS for at least a month, but there are some challenges along the way.

Lets go:

IUPUI-FW: I honestly cannot tell you one thing about this team.
W 84-45

Savannah State: Yikes, this team will be lucky to finish in the top 310 teams this year
W 91-55

Florida A&M: I wish they would bring their band- so the Badger band could kick their ass, just like the Basketball team kicks ass here

W 74-59

Colorado: Hopefully the Badgers do dominate so they can be well-rested for the 3rd game in 3 days. Colorado is not very good at all, probably the 11th team in the Big 12

W 69-57

Georgia: Georgia let me down last year. Badgers need to be careful here as the Dawgs can defend and are very athletic.

W 71-63

Duke: Finally! The Badgers get an ACC team not named Maryland or Wake Forest. We've been waiting so long for Duke or UNC, but be careful what you wish for- a trip to Cameron is not easy. The Badgers match up very well with Duke, however. If Flowers can continuously slash to the lane and dish to Butch and J-Boh the Badgers can win. But it is Cameron

L 81-78


Wofford: Wofford is a small school from Spartanburg, SC, not to be confused with Winthrop who is a small school from Rock Hill, SC. Withrop is good and almost beat our Badgers in Madison last year. Wofford is not a good team.

W 84-50


Marquette: BRING IT ON. History tells me that this will be a great game. Paper and video tells me that Marquette will be a tough matchup. But the game is in Madison. Therefore, this is an easier one to pick

W 76-71


UW-Milwaukee: The last time Wisconsin went to Milwaukee was 6 years ago, was on campus and was a nail biter. This one will not be an easy game and could prove dangerous if the Badgers do not shoot well and get out-worked on the boards. Jeter will have his team up, but the Badgers are better.

W 59-52


UW-Green Bay. Along with Milwaukee, the Phoenix should end up in the top 3 of the Horizon. They are slowly improving, but they aren't winning at the Kohl.

W 65-49


Valpo: Holy crap! Another team from the Horizon! What, would no one from the Valley or the MAC come to Madison. This is Valpo's first season in the Horizon, but that is the least of their worries on this night.

W 75-58


Texas: This is the toughest non-conference matchup in my mind. In order to win Flowers is going to have to take DJ Augustin out of the game. Control Augustin and get in his head and he becomes a turnover machine. If the Badgers can keep it close Rick Barnes will screw it up down the stretch. But I am afraid of Bo's boys on the road in non-conference games ouside of the state.

L 78-62


That puts the Badgers at 10-2 and probably just inside or outside of the top 25 going into the Big 10. I can maybe see this team going 11-1, and would not be shocked with a 9-3 or even 8-4 record if they cannot turn the Kohl into a fortress against MU and Georgia. 8-4 would not be a disaster, but it would force the team to probably win 10 big 10 games in order to make the NCAA tourney.

Quickly, conference W-L:

@Mich: W
Iowa: W
Illinois: W
@PSU: L
NU: W
Mich: W
@Purdue: L
IU: W
@Minn: L
@Iowa: W
Purdue: W
@Indiana: L
Minnesota: W
@Illinois: L
@OSU: L
MSU: W
PSU: W
@NU: W

Big 10 Record: 12-6, good for a tie for 2nd with Indiana.

22-8 regular season record would be remarkable and is probably slightly inflated (although BT Wonk had the Badgers 13-5 tied with MSU- which would probably make the Badgers the #1 seed since the Badgers do not go to East Lansing)

A 22-8 record with a 1-1 record in Indy and wins over Georgia, MU, UW-M, Purdue, Illinois, IU, and MSU (all projected tourney teams by me) would probably warrant a 4-5 seed in March.

I think the Badgers are realistically in the 4-7 seed range come March and their ceiling is probably a sweet 16 run unless the bracket opens up like it did in 2005.

My next post will be a Big 10 preview followed by my national preview.

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