Busting the Nuts
Since 1999, Bucky has owned the Shoe, and Sherby and myself have been privileged to witness the last two triumphs (TR, weren't you at the 1999 2nd half tsunami?). Oddsmakers gave UW's modest three-game streak in Columbus a fleeting glance in naming the Buckeyes 15-point favorites on Saturday. While the uncertainty of PJ Hill's availability is probably a contributing factor, OSU's blue chip win in Happy Valley on Saturday installs them as the team to beat as they run through the gauntlet of Bucky, Illinois, and Michigan the next three weeks.
OSU returns home with the top rushing and overall defense in the nation against Bucky's third-string running back and an offense that has failed to convert turnovers into points, not to mention committing an inexcusable share of their own. Todd Boeckman has apparently transformed from game manager to Tom Brady clone after his short excursion in the Nittany Mountains, and Beenie Wells leads a formidable backfield.
So how does Bucky win when all signs point to a lopsided affair sending the Badgers home with their tails between their legs?
It all starts with defense. Should the team turn in its third straight solid defensive performance in Columbus this can be a four-quarter game, and if it can force a couple of turnovers after knocking Indiana around for five last week, Bucky has a chance to even out the apparent mismatch on the other side of the ball.
12 turnovers in 5 BT games is a recipe for disaster and Bucky is lucky to be 3-2 in the aftermath. Should this trend continue...(I need not complete the sentence). TD must complete passes underneath, particularly to the TE's. I still like the idea of looking to the RB out of the backfield, especially with OSU's tendency to load the box. Maybe Zach Brown will add this dimension in PJ's absence. TD has found trouble when he forces the ball downfield, although I could see Jefferson taking another long one to the house on a go route. Hubbard must step up and show senior leadership, hauling in third down grabs to move the sticks.
PJ, if he plays, will need help, and Zach Brown must be up to the challenge. He needs to run hard for four quarters as the yards might not be there at the outset. UW has won here by pounding the ball relentlessly and completing key third down passes. This recipe, without turnovers, could spark an upset.
The remaining ingredient is our special teams. Field position always seems to matter against OSU, and Melhaff and DeBauche can help to keep the Buckeyes starting drives deep in their own territory. Gilreath has been close to busting a return for a score all season. Saturday would be the optimal time to finally elude the punter and find paydirt.
In the end, this narrative reads like a Shakespearean drama, but this team is as capable as any in the BT of shocking the world and making the conference race interesting once more. Imagine Bucky winning out, and Michigan beating OSU in the Big House. Yes, it can happen, but first things first. Follow Coach B's mantra, and make the Michigan game matter.
posted by Shawn Healy @ 1:22 PM
1 comments
1 Comments:
Yes, I was there in 1999 for the greatest Badger triumph I have ever witnessed.
When the Badgers fell down 16-0 or 17-0 (whatever it was) they turned the game around with defense and special teams. It was only after they clawed back to even did the offense and Ron Dayne finally take over. Dayne was a maniac in that second half and the defense dominated the second half as well.
I remember marching onto the field after the game and looking around and seeing almost no one left (except for the Badger fans in the open part of the stadium. It was not only a great victory for the Badgers, but it was a crushing loss for the Scarlet and grey and their supporters.
Wisconsin will not be able to score more than 24 points on offense tomorrow, and even that is a majormajor stretch. If the Badgers are going to pull it out the defense is going to have to hold the Bucks to under 20, stop the run and either score one themselves, or get a turnover deep in Buckeye territory so TD can put the points on the board.
I see the defense playing very well tomorrow, I see Hayden dominating inside and the linebackers playing up to their potential.
I also see the Buckeyes throwing a clunker out there. They are certainly due for a less than stellar game sometime before the Michigan curtain closer.
I am fairly confident the Badgers will follow the script from 1995 and 2002- keeping the Buckeyes in check for at least 45 minutes, but in the end the absence of Hill and Swan will just be too much for Buck to overcome.
The Buckeyes lead 17-13 going into the 4th and get a touchdown, the Badgers put together a field goal drive to make it 24-16, but cannot get the ball back and end up on the short end of this one.
I'd like to say "I hope I am wrong." But in this case, wrong could be 38-10.
Screw it, I hope I am wrong, GO RED!
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