Two Horse Race

Indiana's brutal second half performance against Illinois on Tuesday (add the last 10 minutes of the 1st half) is indicative that a significant gap remains between the Hoosiers and the two BT frontrunners, UW and OSU. Regardless of how Bucky fares in Bloomington next Wednesday, the Badgers and Buckeyes will battle until the end for the regular season title. With the halfway point of the BT season only a week away, what follows is a projection of what the remaining ten games hold for Bo Ryan and Thad Matta.

Bucky:
1/24: @ Iowa (W-a nail-biter, but Bucky is too talented to lose to the Hawks minus horrible FT shooting)

1/31: @ Indiana (L-Bucky will play a 40-minute game making this a winnable game against the younger Hoosiers)

2/3: NW (W-blowout)

2/7: @ Penn St. (W)

2/10: Iowa (W)

2/14: at Minnesota (W-blowout)

2/17: Penn St. (W-blowout)

2/20: @ MSU (L-Izzo's team improving each week)

2/25: @ OSU (L-Oden too much for Chappel and polar bears)

3/3: MSU (W-payback, and mini-losing streak halted)

Ohio State:
1/27: MSU (W-close game)

1/31: @ Purdue (W-no answer to bearded man in middle)

2/3: @ MSU (L)

2/6: Michigan (W)

2/10: Purdue (W-blowout)

2/14: @ Penn St. (W)

2/18: @ Minnesota (W-blowout)

2/21: Penn St. (W)

2/25: Wisconsin (W)

3/1: @ Michigan (W-close game)

Doing the math, OSU boxes out the Badgers for the title with a 14-2 record, one game better than UW's 13-3. Bucky plays a tougher schedule with road games at UI and IU and no payback in Madison, while OSU doesn't travel to Bloomington or IC. This makes the Badgers next two games critical as they can erase this imbalance with 2 road wins. I still expect OSU to drop one they shouldn't on the road on account of youth. The contests at Purdue and Michigan are the most likely candidates, especially the latter given the emotional high from playing Bucky in Columbus.